US House Prices Vaccinations Indicator
Housing-Market / US Housing Feb 21, 2021 - 04:20 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
In my opinion one of the primary indicators for economic recovery for the US and the rest of the world is the percentage of the the adult population that has been vaccinated, and especially the segment of the population at highest risk of hospitalisation and death from covid-19 i.e. the over 50's. In which respect US vaccinations currently stand at 6.2 million with approx 1 million americans being vaccinated per day (1st dose) or about 0.3% of the population. Which frankly is just not good enough. So unless things step up a gear perhaps after Biden takes office then under the current pace the US is not going to have vaccinated 50% of the population until late May and that is just with the first dose!
So currently in vaccine indicator terms the Covid crisis looks set to continue and likely worsen for most of Q1 2021 and likely only really start to diminish in severity as US enters April when enough people have been vaccinated so as to induce herd immunity and thus result in a sharp drop off in the number of cases during the summer months and especially ahead of Winter 2021.
So more economic Covid pain for the duration of Q1. With strong recovery starting early April as the rate of vaccinations jumps to perhaps 1.6 million per day that should see the covid crisis evaporate as we enter May by the end of which perhaps 50% of the US population will have gained immunity of sorts with perhaps 25% having received their second doses by then. Therefore the covid vaccine indicator implies to expect a Summer economic boom of sorts following the end of the Pandemic as all those who survive go on a spending binge! Which implies to expect HIGH REAL INFLATION! Your dollars are going to buy you far less than they do even now after the great Covidflation of 2020 which is the price paid for handing the population free money.
Though the US also has a healthy dose of the anti-vaxers to contend with that could derail the US vaccinations programme from achieving anywhere near herd immunity by early Summer, something to definitely keep a close eye on.
Whilst the UK appears about 2 weeks ahead of the US in terms of vaccinations with 3% of the population vaccinated. Though that advantage is more than offset by having to contend with the London / Dutch strain that is 50% more virulent, rather than more deadly. Though when one crunches the numbers, a strain that is 50% more virulent than if it were 50% more deadly is actually worse! As far more people become infected soon resulting in hospitals becoming overwhelmed with ill patients. So the MSM broadcasters have got things WRONG again as they confidently report that the new strain is not any more deadly than the strain let out of the wuhan bio lab some 14 months ago. Which implies to expect deeper covid economic pain during Q1. Though this more virulent strain has already appeared in the US. So now is definitely time for both the US and UK to up their game in the delivery of jabs into peoples arms where every single day counts! and where the likes of the Pharmacies in Supermarkets and High Street chemists should be co-opted to hasten the pace of at least the delivery of first jabs into peoples arms in a race against time to prevent collapse of health care systems that in the UK at least is less than 2 weeks away.
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
Here is the updated chart for what has transpired since my forecast of April 2019.
Whilst the US stock market had a panic attack crash into Mid March. The crash where US house prices are concerned was UPWARDS! Which should not come as much of a surprise to those who have been following my analysis for the past 10 years! Money printing, MONEY PRINTING! When you know the Fed is about to print a shit load of money whatever they call it, will mean that assets that cannot be easily printed will surge higher, this IS the INFLATION MEGA-TREND IN ACTION!
The primary mega-trend IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! Those who bet against it on hopes of a repeat of the 1930's depression will keep going BROKE!
This article is an excerpt form my recent extensive in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for US house prices into 2021.
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021, AI Stocks and Coronavirus Pandemic Finale Catastrophe
- UK Coronavirus Catastrophe at Start of 2021
- US Coronavirus Catastrophe at Start of 2021
- US House Prices Trend Forecast Review
- The Inflation Mega-trend QE4EVER
- US House Prices Trend Forecast 2021
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- AI Stocks at Start of 2021
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Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
- UK Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
- US Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
- Stock Market Forecasts and Analysis Review of 2020
- The Stock Market Big Picture
- Post Covid Economic Boom
- GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS
- FED Balance Sheet
- Dow Short-term Analysis
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Presidential Cycle
- Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)
- Dow Stock Market 2021 Outlook Forecast Conclusion
Analysis Schedule :
My analysis schedule includes:
- AI Stocks buying levels update
- UK house prices trend forecast
- Bitcoin price trend forecast
- How to Get Rich
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
* AI Stocks Buying Levels for 2021
After the bonanza of 201 it's time for a significant reorganisation of my AI stocks portfolio for 2021 and beyond.
* UK Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021
Will the UK follow the US inflationary lead or has Brexit and Covid combined to press the pause button on the UK housing bull market for 2021?
* Bitcoin trend forecast 2021
Everyone's now bullish on bitcoin at $50k, well my patrons got to buy it at under $10k!
Last two updates forecast conclusions -
17th Sept 2019 Bitcoin Price Analysis and Trend Forecast
Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Bitcoin price to hold support at $9,400 in preparations for an assault on $12k, a break of which would target a break of $14k. However if support at $9.4k fails than Bitcoin could trade down as low as $6k BEFORE heading higher.
31st March 2020 - Coronavirus Parabolic Pandemic, Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast
Forecast Conclusion
My forecast conclusion is for the Bitcoin price to mark time by trading down to as low as $7,500 before basing for a run higher to resistance of $10,500 that 'should' break to propel the Bitcoin price towards the next resistance level of $12,000. Thus the bitcoin price could drift lower for the next couple of months or so before resuming a bullish trend as illustrated by this chart.
Your analyst wishing all my Patrons a happy and prosperous covid free 2021
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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