US House Prices Momentum Analysis
Housing-Market / US Housing Feb 20, 2021 - 02:32 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Houston we have Lift OFF! If it were not clear from the house prices graph then it should be clear form the momentum graph that US house prices have taken off! Rising at their fastest pace since 2012! Likely to end 2020 up about 8% on the year. Furthermore the breakout above the 2018 peak suggests further strong house prices gains to come during 2021 i.e. this sort of powerful up thrust in trend usually does not turn on a dime.
By Mid 2021 we could see average US house prices rising by over 10% per annum! IMAGINE THAT! 10 PERCENT PER ANNUM! Though after the summer mania I would expect momentum to slow during the second half of 2021 so likely fall back sharply towards 6% per annum.
So momentum suggests to expect another strong year for the US housing bull market, probably end the year up between 5 to 9% after about an 8% gain for 2020.
US House Prices Real Estate Trend Forecast Review
Did the perma bears finally get their US house prices crash that they have been crowing so loudly for a decade now?
Firstly a recap of my existing US house prices trend forecast.
30th April 2019 - US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for a relatively weak continuation of the US housing bull market into late 2020 at a much shallower pace than experienced in recent years for a likely gain of just 3% over the next 2 years (Jan 2019 to Jan 2021) before entering into a downtrend going into 2021 i.e. Case Shiller 10 city Index (SPCS10RNSA ) rising from 225.9 (Jan 2019 data) to just 232.4 (Jan 2021 data) as illustrated by my trend forecast graph.
Here is the updated chart for what has transpired since my forecast of April 2019.
Whilst the US stock market had a panic attack crash into Mid March. The crash where US house prices are concerned was UPWARDS! Which should not come as much of a surprise to those who have been following my analysis for the past 10 years! Money printing, MONEY PRINTING! When you know the Fed is about to print a shit load of money whatever they call it, will mean that assets that cannot be easily printed will surge higher, this IS the INFLATION MEGA-TREND IN ACTION!
The primary mega-trend IS THE INFLATION MEGA-TREND! Those who bet against it on hopes of a repeat of the 1930's depression will keep going BROKE!
This article is an excerpt form my recent extensive in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for US house prices into 2021.
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021, AI Stocks and Coronavirus Pandemic Finale Catastrophe
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The whole of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work so immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Including my latest which concludes in a detailed stock market trend forecast for 2021 -
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
- UK Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
- US Coronavirus Pandemic Current State
- Stock Market Forecasts and Analysis Review of 2020
- The Stock Market Big Picture
- Post Covid Economic Boom
- GAMESTOP MANIA BUBBLE BURSTS
- FED Balance Sheet
- Dow Short-term Analysis
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- SEASONAL ANALYSIS / Presidential Cycle
- Stocks Bear Market / Crash Indicator (CI18)
- Dow Stock Market 2021 Outlook Forecast Conclusion
Analysis Schedule :
My analysis schedule includes:
- AI Stocks buying levels update
- UK house prices trend forecast
- Bitcoin price trend forecast
- How to Get Rich
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
* AI Stocks Buying Levels for 2021
After the bonanza of 201 it's time for a significant reorganisation of my AI stocks portfolio for 2021 and beyond.
* UK Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021
Will the UK follow the US inflationary lead or has Brexit and Covid combined to press the pause button on the UK housing bull market for 2021?
* Bitcoin trend forecast 2021
Everyone's now bullish on bitcoin at $50k, well my patrons got to buy it at under $10k!
Last two updates forecast conclusions -
17th Sept 2019 Bitcoin Price Analysis and Trend Forecast
Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Bitcoin price to hold support at $9,400 in preparations for an assault on $12k, a break of which would target a break of $14k. However if support at $9.4k fails than Bitcoin could trade down as low as $6k BEFORE heading higher.
31st March 2020 - Coronavirus Parabolic Pandemic, Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast
Forecast Conclusion
My forecast conclusion is for the Bitcoin price to mark time by trading down to as low as $7,500 before basing for a run higher to resistance of $10,500 that 'should' break to propel the Bitcoin price towards the next resistance level of $12,000. Thus the bitcoin price could drift lower for the next couple of months or so before resuming a bullish trend as illustrated by this chart.
Your analyst wishing all my Patrons a happy and prosperous covid free 2021
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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