UK Coronavirus Final Pandemic Catastrophe 2021
Politics / Pandemic Jan 14, 2021 - 06:07 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Hope you had a great start to 2021, 2020 the year of the Pandemic has finally coming to an end. However the chinese virus is not done with reeking havoc on the worlds population, at least in western nations with their ageing populations that for the likes of Italy stand at an average age of 45 against developing nations such as Pakistan with an average age of just 22 years which at least goes some way to explain why the covid crisis is just not as bad as it is in the West. Though India with an average age of 26 seems to be suffering that bit more than Pakistan is so this anomaly could be down to -
a. A weaker strain of the virus.
b. Less testing so most patients with covid are unrecorded much as was the case in the West during the March / April first wave of the chinese virus.
This article is an excerpt form the latest extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for US house prices.
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021, AI Stocks and Coronavirus Pandemic Finale Catastrophe
- UK Coronavirus Catastrophe at Start of 2021
- US Coronavirus Catastrophe at Start of 2021
- US House Prices Trend Forecast Review
- The Inflation Mega-trend QE4EVER
- US House Prices Trend Forecast 2021
- General Artificial Intelligence Was BORN in 2020!
- How AI will come to rule the world
- Intel Fights Back!
- AI Stocks at Start of 2021
The whole of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work so immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Nevertheless the virus is not quite done yet with the West as my warnings of to expect worse 2nd and third waves starting in August and right into early October are materialising with a vengeance. And where the primary reasoning behind this outcome boils down to GROSS NEGLIENCE AND INCOMPETENCE! On the one hand we have literally MAD SCIENTISTS encouraging the likes of herd immunity, EVEN as late as September 2020, as what's her name the so called Cambridge University Professor could be seen babbling on the likes of Channel 4 news encouraging non action, IGNORANT of the facts that the virus was starting to pick up speed as millions of Brit's returned from their summer holidays soaking up the virus on Portuguese and Spanish beeches that seeded the virus across the UK the price for which would be paid in terms of 2nd and then third worse winter waves. Clearly the scientists advising the government had been WAITING for the Pandemic for decades so that they could now bask the light of media attention, many of whom of gone on to become media whores, household names! These mad baskets have literally had their wish come true!
Then we have the negligent stick their heads in the sand governments, who would rather not read the writing on the wall until it was too late! With hospitals filling up in their brim and the number of deaths doubling every couple of weeks. So the warned of WORSE Second AND Third waves were INEVITABLE. Even if this is not how the Pandemic should have played out if the government and healthcare sectors response had been competent as my graph from Mid March illustrates that each successive peak was supposed to diminish in severity with each subsequent wave of the virus.
The logic being that increased intelligence on the virus should result in a more efficient healthcare response, that and gradually the more people that became infected and immune or died from the virus then there would be less scope for the virus to spread with each successive wave. However, I clearly gave too much competency to the government and it's self serving mad scientists hence where we stand today at the start of 2021 with the virus literally going on an out of control rampage.
UK Coronavirus Pandemic Catastrophe Current State
The number of people testing positive has rocketed higher since September when it was eyeing a break of the April official tally of 6,000 a day. Though as the graph illustrates the actual number at the peak was more like 100,000 a day given the government incompetent response to the pandemics first wave.
This is what the graph currently looks like as Novembers second wave soon morphed into a far more severe December third wave that currently stands at about 80% of the April peak when allowing for asymptotic people who are not getting tested, so approximately right now about 80,000 per day are contracting the virus.
So the UK is pretty close to having infections rivaling that of the worst of the Pandemic peak, perhaps no more than 7 days away as the lockdown that proved successful earlier in the year failed to work that is largely due to a new strain emanating out of London that probably has its origins in Dutch mink farms which is proving it be about 50% more virulent than that of the first wave.
So on this measure alone January for the UK looks set to be catastrophic!
Covid Hospital Admissions
This was the picture in late September with few covid patients occupying NHS beds, that played a large part in the government and it's mad scientist advisors making a series of critical errors in assuming that the worst of the Pandemic was behind the nation and thus introduced a tiered approach to controlling the pandemic instead of a series of rolling lockdown's to clamp down hard on the pandemic.
Unfortunately my worst fears of worse second peak on terms of hospitalisations is now coming to pass. As clearly adopting a tiered approach was flat out WRONG and has FAILED miserably to halt the pandemic.
So the UK stands at the start of 2021 with its hospital beds full, with reports that ill patients are being treated in lines of ambulances parked outside hospitals, a disastrous start to the year.
Covid Deaths 28 Days Since Testing Positive
The only reliable way to measure the extent of the pandemic during the first wave was in the number of deaths, which illustrated the extent to which the government had lost control as the number of daily deaths soared to a peak of 1,224 by the 22nd of April.
Back in September I had estimated that given the governments lack of competence the then daily death rate of 37 could reach as high as 600 per day by early November 2020, by which which time I had hoped that the government would have gotten their act together with a series of rolling national lockdown's, instead of which the government adopted it's disastrous tiered approach.
Unfortunately here we stand with the number of daily deaths accelerating to just below 1000 per day, that now given that the hospitals are full and with Christmas relaxation coupled with new year festivities all topped off with a 50% more virulent virus though thankfully the vaccine still works with, then the number of UK deaths per day looks set to pass the peak daily tally of 1224 within the 10 days of the new year, and likely could set a new high at over 1500 deaths per day.
Current total deaths on the 28 day test measure are 73,512, a number which could double towards an end 2022 death toll tally of 150,000!
Schools Not Likely to Reopen Anytime Soon, Expect GCSE Exams to be Cancelled
Meanwhile Britain's schools despite the Governments mantra of business as usual during January of a one week delay for Year 11's and home schooling for the rest for a couple of weeks. I just cannot see how schools can open in any significant manner until perhaps Mid March. Furthermore my consistent view has been GCSE exams will be cancelled for 2021 for which so far there is diddly squat reporting of in the mainstream press despite this being the most probable outcome.
Of course the primary reason why there has been no announcement for the canceling of GCSE Exams for 2021 is because then Year 11 children would have little incentive to study. Nevertheless, I reiterate my message to all Year 11 students in that YOU MUST STUDY HARD for the Mock exams, As many pupils are scheduled to sit their mocks during January which is why the focus is on getting Year 11's into school now for at least a few week so that they can sit their mock exams.
Also Year 11 students should note that their mock exam results will be their FINALE GCSE grades with perhaps most of mock grades being increased by 1 level, i.e. a Maths mock exam grade 7 would be increased to a GCSE final grade 8.
Vaccines
To date 1 million Pfizer first dose vaccines gave been administered in the UK. However the government is now delaying the second dose so that more people can be vaccinated in a race against time against the new strain of the virus. With the Oxford / Astrazenica vaccine to start being administered from the 4th of January. Whilst the vaccines will make a significant difference, unfortunately that difference will likely only start to impact on the pandemic from March onwards after some 10 million+ people have been vaccinated and had time for an immune response to develop.
So the vaccines are not going to save Britain from the catastrophe that is likely to take place during January and much of February.
All of this does not bode well for UK economic activity for at least Q1 2020 that could see GDP contract by as much as another 6% on top of the 10% drop for 2020 which will likely have a negative impact on the FTSE during Q1, that I will include a look at in my forthcoming stock market trend forecast for 2021.
UPDATE - On the 4th Jan 2020 at 8pm Boris Johnson announced a FULL UK Lockdown that looks set to run to at least Mid February that in my opinion could continue into Mid March. Also announced was an ambitious plan to vaccinate 15 million people, i.e. all those in the 4 highest risk groups and key workers by Mid February. Unfortunately to date the government has barely managed to vaccinate 2 million people so I don't see how the 15 million target can be achieved by Mid Feb, in fact even half the target (7.5 million) will be tough to achieve which means to expect the vaccination mission to be accomplished by Mid March by which time the number of daily deaths should have sharply fallen from the current 1200+ per day to perhaps less than 50 per day, given that most of those likely to die from the virus will have been vaccinated by then and gained some level of immunity.
In the meantime the UK is fast galloping into the covid storm with covid hospital beds now exceeding 30,000, against 25,000 at the height of the first wave peak, and the continuing news of about 50,000 covid cases per day which means many more patients will need hospitalisation over the coming weeks. So things are definitely going to get a lot worse in the UK before they get any better, and thus the next 3-4 weeks is definitely not a time to be falling ill with anything, as ones chances of receiving effective treatment in UK hospitals will be near zero! Especially if ones skin tone is brown given the institutionally racist nature of the NHS that has been born out in the deaths disparity both for BAME NHS workers and patients.
Meanwhile ONS data confirms the magnitude of the pandemic's impact as the number of excess deaths for 2020 is the greatest since World War 2.
So imagine if the government had more closely followed the advice of the mad scientists such as Valance and the Cambridge so called professor who had fully embraced herd immunity, UK deaths spike would likely now be 2 to 3 times higher.
This article was an excerpt form the latest extensive analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for US house prices.
US Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021, AI Stocks and Coronavirus Pandemic Finale Catastrophe
- UK Coronavirus Catastrophe at Start of 2021
- US Coronavirus Catastrophe at Start of 2021
- US House Prices Trend Forecast Review
- The Inflation Mega-trend QE4EVER
- US House Prices Trend Forecast 2021
- General Artificial Intelligence Was BORN in 2020!
- How AI will come to rule the world
- Intel Fights Back!
- AI Stocks at Start of 2021
The whole of which was first been made available to Patrons who support my work so immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Analysis Schedule :
My analysis schedule for the rest of January and into Mid February to include:
- UK house prices trend forecast
- Stock market trend forecast for 2021
- AI stocks buying levels update
- Bitcoin price trend forecast
- US Dollar and British Pound analysis
* UK Housing Market Trend Forecast 2021
Will the UK follow the US inflationary lead or has Brexit and Covid combined to press the pause button on the UK housing bull market for 2021?
* Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021
In respect of which how did my forecast at the start of the year for 2020 fair?
31st Dec 2019 - Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020
Dow Stock Market 2020 Outlook Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Dow to target a trend to between 30,750 and 31,000 by the end of 2020. For a likely gain of 8% to 9% for the year (on the last close of 28,642).
My series of 2020 stock market analysis will seek to map out multi-month detailed trend forecasts as was the case for 2019. With the first to be completed during January, going into which my expectations are for a correction early 2020. Which given my bullish outlook implies should prove to be a buying opportunity.
Here is how the Dow trended during 2020 and where it ended the year.
* AI Stocks Buying Levels for Q1 2021
If possible before the end of January 2021, if not early February.
* Bitcoin trend forecast 2021
Last two updates forecast conclusions -
17th Sept 2019 Bitcoin Price Analysis and Trend Forecast
Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Bitcoin price to hold support at $9,400 in preparations for an assault on $12k, a break of which would target a break of $14k. However if support at $9.4k fails than Bitcoin could trade down as low as $6k BEFORE heading higher.
31st March 2020 - Coronavirus Parabolic Pandemic, Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast
Forecast Conclusion
My forecast conclusion is for the Bitcoin price to mark time by trading down to as low as $7,500 before basing for a run higher to resistance of $10,500 that 'should' break to propel the Bitcoin price towards the next resistance level of $12,000. Thus the bitcoin price could drift lower for the next couple of months or so before resuming a bullish trend as illustrated by this chart.
Your analyst wishing all my Patrons a happy and prosperous covid free 2021
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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