The Next IMMINENT Global Catastrophe After Coronavirus
Politics / Economic Collapse Jan 01, 2021 - 06:01 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
So the inevitable pandemic in our lifetime that most of the world including the whole of Europe and North America were totally unprepared that had moronic government scientists spouting in the early months that the general public should not wear masks which was due to lack of PPE stock, whilst prime ministers and presidents laughed it off as something that would magically disappear before Easter, instead has had a severe economic and social impact on all of our lives this past year. However given the fast materialisation of vaccines should soon start diminishing in significance of future impact.
So what else is out there lurking in the near mists of time about to have en equal if not greater impact on our everyday lives?
Asteroid impact? Inevitable yes, for instance Apopthis (named after the Egyptian snake god of chaos) is due for a very close rendezvous with Earth in April 2029, which is one of thousands that cross Earths orbit, but the range of probabilities span decades to tens of thousands of years, so not something that can be assumed to be definitely imminent in terms of a catastrophic impact.
So what is the next PROBABLE catastrophic event that we are largely unprepared for, well what comes to mind are coronal mass ejections (CME), which may not do human and other life much harm directly but could bring an end to our electronic civilisation within hours of a direct hit by a major CME that fries our satellites (No more GPS), transformers, wipes data such as bank records and kills general electronics from smartphone's to sending planes dropping from the sky's onto buildings below.
How probable is such an CME event?
VERY probable as the Sun comes out of a solar activity cycle low as measured by sun spot activity, Likely imminent, just as warnings of a pandemic spanning the past 10 years set the scene for an imminent pandemic to plan for that few governments did. The Earth being hit by a massive solar storm within the next 10 to 15 years is VERY PROBABLE, a 80% probability! One only needs to look at the sun spot activity to see that the sun has been relatively quiet for the past 20 years just at a time when smartphone technologies have taking off globally, with many hundreds of satellites going up during this solar quiet time period virtually none of which would survive being hit by a CME.
The sun's quiet period is coming to an end and we are going to see spikes in solar activity that could see a solar mass ejection coming Earths way. The greater the solar activity then the higher the probability of Earth being hit by a solar storm, and it IS going to happen, the Earth WILL be hit by charged particle storms from the Sun the only question mark is the magnitude and will we get a direct hit or glancing blows. Where a glancing blow would still cause some damage and outages whist a direct hit would send us immediately back into a pre electricity age for anywhere from a few days to likely several months! Depending on what electronics failed such as transformers for which there is little backup stock, perhaps only enough to get a few cities up and running whilst most of the rest of the nations remained in blackout.
We have seen what a few hours without electricity can do to some inner city populations, sending them rioting and looting, what will happen if the outages extend to several months! In a world without ANY communications, no internet, no TV and likely NO RADIO due to ionisation of the atmosphere, a complete communications blackout with perhaps the police patrolling on horses with loud speakers to order populations to remain indoors.
Information silence and food shortages within days as every none essential person is forced to stay at home with the army soon patrolling the streets whilst the government organises emergency food rations to prevent starvation. So the Earth being hit head on by an coronal mass ejection will be catastrophic with the impact likely many times worse than the Pandemic we have just experienced perhaps with the world not getting back to normal for several years!
When Did the Earth Last Take a Hit?
The Earth was hit by a glancing blow in March 1989 that knocked out power across large sections of Quebec.
In 23rd July 2012 the Earth had a near miss with a solar super storm that would have knocked the Earth in technological terms back to 18th century. This should have acted as a wake up call for governments but apparently not, maybe the more far sighted tech giants such Google have contingencies in place to protect their data but most small and medium sized corporations are blind to what's around the corner.
How to Protect Your Tech from a Solar Storm
Whilst we have no control over protection of satellites, power stations, transformers and other electronic infrastructure.
However we could all look into how to protect our personal electronic devices from an CME storm that would risk wiping them clean of all data and likely worse make them inoperable.
The easiest first defence is to have them unplugged from the mains, after all there could be as much as 30 minutes advance warning of a CME heading our way. So maybe leave valuable tech switched off and unplugged at night would be a good starting point.
Next would be to have or make a faraday cage from metal mesh, you all already have one of sorts in your homes, your microwave which could save data such as on hard drives and your smartphone during an CME just as along as they are unplugged. So don't throw your old microwave away, keep it in the garage with any external hard drives kept inside it.
Ensure you have a stash of cash because there won't be any electronic banking for a while.
What about a small petrol powered generator, a quick look on Amazon shows generators starting at £230 for a 6500 watt, 3.4kva generator rising to £530 for a 7,500w, 9.4kva generator. And of course you'll need some fuel storage.
Some walking boots? Because you'll want to keep that fuel in your tank (if it's petrol) to power the generator and don't forget no traffic lights for a while.
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My current analysis is focused on the prospects for the US and UK housing markets during 2021, soon to be followed by a stock market trend forecast for 2021.
In respect of which how did my forecast for 2020 fair?
31st Dec 2019 - Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020
Dow Stock Market 2020 Outlook Forecast Conclusion
Therefore my forecast conclusion is for the Dow to target a trend to between 30,750 and 31,000 by the end of 2020. For a likely gain of 8% to 9% for the year (on the last close of 28,642).
My series of 2020 stock market analysis will seek to map out multi-month detailed trend forecasts as was the case for 2019. With the first to be completed during January, going into which my expectations are for a correction early 2020. Which given my bullish outlook implies should prove to be a buying opportunity.
Here is how the Dow trended during 2020 and where it ended the year.
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Your Analyst, wondering if Youtube would be wiped clean following a CME.
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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