Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Why the Market's "Faith in the Fed" May Be Dwindling Fast

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets 2020 Nov 08, 2020 - 01:32 PM GMT

By: EWI

Stock-Markets

A chart that could be "a proxy for the market's faith in the Fed" shows "a classic loss of momentum"

Legendary financier John Pierpont Morgan was -- for all practical purposes -- a one-man central bank before the Fed came into existence in 1913.

During the financial panic of 1907, the banking titan used his influence to provide bailouts for faltering financial institutions. And, back in 1895, he had actually loaned the federal government money during another crisis.


As the October Global Market Perspective, an Elliott Wave International monthly publication which covers 50-plus markets worldwide, noted:

The creation of the Fed had J.P. Morgan at its heart and, since then, the relationship has been very cozy (witness the Fed gifting J.P. Morgan Bear Stearns for a tenth of its value in 2008).

All of what's been said relates to this chart and commentary -- also from the October Global Market Perspective:

[The chart] shows the relative performance of J.P. Morgan to the U.S. banking sector. A very clear five-wave advance can be seen from 2002 with the fifth wave being shallower than the third, a classic loss of momentum as the impulse fades. This chart could be a proxy for the market's faith in the Fed. If that is so, the Fed's zenith is being crested right now.

Of course, the conventional wisdom has been that the Fed holds a lot of power over the economy and even the stock market.

The 2020 edition of Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash calls this the "potent directors" fallacy. Here's a quote from the book:

It is nearly impossible to find a treatise on macroeconomics today that does not assert or assume that the Federal Reserve Board has learned to control the credit supply, interest rates, the rate of inflation and the economy. Many people believe that it also possesses immense power to manipulate the stock market.

The very idea that it can do these things is false. ...

Real economic growth in the U.S. was greater in the nineteenth century without a central bank than it [had] been in the twentieth century with one.

The U.S. has experienced numerous financial crises in its history.

Here in the waning weeks of 2020, the evidence suggests that the next one may be one of the most severe. This financial earthquake will likely shake the entire globe.

Prepare now.

Let's return to the 2020 edition of Conquer the Crash:

The discrepancy between the value of total debt outstanding and the value of its real underlying collateral is huge. It is anyone's guess how much of that gap ultimately will have to close to satisfy the credit markets in a deflationary depression. For our purposes, it is enough to say that the gap itself, and therefore the deflationary potential, has never been larger.

Now is the time to read Elliott Wave International's special free report: "What You Need to Know Now About Protecting Yourself from Deflation."

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why the Market's "Faith in the Fed" May Be Dwindling Fast. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in