Can Trump Win? US Presidential Election Matrix Forecast Final Update
ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2020 Nov 01, 2020 - 03:10 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
Will the November 3rd election earthquake trigger a stock market Tsunami or just a few inconsequential waves lapping on the market shore? Here we stand just a few days away from the US presidential election with the liberal MSM in a state of electoral fever as their preferred candidate is way ahead on the polls looking set to win, just as their favoured candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016 was way head of the polls so unlike 2016 there is an edge to the frenzy of their activity given the awareness that the polls tend to be wrong, skewed against conservative voters and opinions. However, 2020 is even more chaotic than 2016, as this year there is the backdrop of the chinese virus raging across the US and especially in many US swing states that is contributing towards new cases of infection soaring to new plandemic highs with deaths already having broken above 230,000! Near double all of the US lives lost in all of the wars since 194 that acts as a continuing noose around the US economy, though that has so far not been enough to full fill that which the perma stock market doom merchants have been proclaiming for a more than a decade, an end to the stocks bull market.
The stock market has largely marked time in a tight trading range with all wondering if Trump being 10%+ behind in the polls can manage to pull off another election miracle as he did in 2016.
This article is an excerpt from my latest in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed stock market trend into January 2021.
Stock Market Trend Forecast into Janaury 2021, Final Election Forecast Matrix
- Stock Market Big Picture
- Dow Short-term Analysis
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- VIX Analysis
- 2020 vs 2016 and 2012
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- Seasonal Trend / Election Cycle
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Conclusion
- US Presidential Election Forecast Matrix Final Update
- AI Stocks - AMD is Killing Intel
However, the whole of this extensive analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work so do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
US Presidential Election 2016 Forecast Accuracy Review
Can Trump still win in 2020 despite being 10 points behind Biden in the polls? Let's find out from someone who did accurately predict both that the UK would vote to LEAVE the EU and that Trump would win the US Presidential election in 2016 despite what the pollsters, pundits, bookies and markets were stating at the time, as illustrated by my articles and videos at the time. And similarly I also accurately forecast the outcome of the 2012 and 2008 US Presidential elections.
26th Sept 2016 - US Presidential Election 2016 Forecast - Trump BrExit Win?
4th Oct 2016 - Donald Trump Path to Presidency US Election Win Reality
12th Oct 2016 - Can Trump Still Win Despite Opinion Polls, Bookmakers and Pundits all Saying Hillary has Won?
2nd Nov 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - America to Vote for Trump BrExit!
5th Nov 2016 - Hillary Halts Trumps Polls Surge, But Trump Advance Continues in BrExit Swing States
US Presidential Forecast Matrix 2020 Final Update
The pandemic was supposed to play out with smaller successive waves after an initial first worst wave.
Unfortunately the Trump administrations handling of the pandemic has been disastrous to such an extent that America's pandemic resembles the Trump Tower escalator with each successive wave higher than the one before.
Thankfully increased medical intelligence about the virus has lowered the death rate somewhat though this may prove temporary when the number of daily cases starts overwhelming the healthcare system again.
And don't take this as me picking on the US for the UK has been similarly abysmally negligent in it's handling of the Pandemics 2nd wave which if left to run would exceed the first peak high by Mid November. With the UK death rate now running at 350 per day and doubling every 9 days. So the government instead of acting 5-6 weeks ago is now being forced to implement panic measures hence today's news of a NEW UK lockdown starting on bonfire night, the 5th of November.
It's the economy stupid, and where the economy is concerned Covid ensures that Trump's odds of being re-elected were poor just on this one metric alone, what with number unemployed soaring by 10 million to 14 million, GDP 10% lower and a collapse in personal incomes, then the stock market taking a last week election dive, all of that is before taking into account the electoral impact of 235,000 american deaths! on route to what? 500,000 deaths by the end of winter? As Biden would say "Come on Man" Trump always had a poor chance of winning under such dire circumstances!
Therefore my final forecast conclusion remains unchanged in that I expect Biden to win on 49.1% of the vote with Trump losing on 46.4%, with the balance distributed amongst independant's.
However, it should be noted that Hillary lost to Trump 48.2% to 46.1% in 2016, though I HAVE factored in a 0.8% electoral college advantage to Trump in my Matrix, because at the end of the day it is the electoral college that determines who wins than the popular vote. In which respect I expect Biden to win over 300 electoral college votes, so unlike 2016, I am not expecting this election to be close.
What if there had been no Chinese Virus Pandemic?
Then Trump would easily have beaten Biden on 49.8% to 45.7%.
Could Trump pull off another election miracle like 2016?
We'll as the following video of what happened in 2016 illustrates that when one is dealing with intense delirium and intense MSM delusional bias, then yes it IS possible even if I and many others are unable to see how that could be possible this time round.
AMD Killing Intel, Nvidia Next?
Earlier this month we had another huge reminder of why Intel's stock price has been stagnating for the past 3 years whilst at the same time stickleback competitor AMD's stock price has soared into the stratosphere.
It all comes down to AMD's Zen series of processors that began with Zen 1 in Mid 2017 that so far have matched or beat every expectation just as was the case with the October launch of AMD's Zen 3, 5000 series of processors that now not only beat Intel but crushes Intel's best retail CPU the 10 core 10900k launched only a few months ago when it is pitted against the similarly priced 5900x, AMD now even decidedly take the gaming crown away from Intel's flag ship processor where on average the 5900x beats the 10900k by a good 7% in gaming. And then AMD has their 16 core Intel killing 5950x CPU.
The following ALL CPUs market share graph illustrates how things look set to play out as AMD displaces Intel and becomes the worlds dominant x86 CPU supplier over the next 12 months whilst likely to beat Intel in the desktop CPU market before the end of this year!
For more watch my 14 minute video of why AMD is Killing Intel with it's Zen series of processors.
I will update AI Stocks buying levels in a future article.
Again this article is an excerpt from my latest in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for the stock market into January 2021.
Stock Market Trend Forecast into Janaury 2021, Final Election Forecast Matrix
- Stock Market Big Picture
- Dow Short-term Analysis
- Dow Long-term Trend Analysis
- VIX Analysis
- 2020 vs 2016 and 2012
- ELLIOTT WAVES
- Seasonal Trend / Election Cycle
- Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Conclusion
- US Presidential Election Forecast Matrix Final Update
- AI Stocks - AMD is Killing Intel
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
And access exclusive to Patrons only content:
How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave.
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Your analyst peering through the mists of time beyond November 3rd.
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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