Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market September Consolidation Vs Straight Up

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Sep 04, 2020 - 05:26 PM GMT

By: Ricky_Wen

Stock-Markets

The month of August wrapped up around the monthly highs as the Emini S&P 500 (ES) price action gained about +7% vs July. It was a statistical outlier as it was one of the biggest gains for August in decades. Nonetheless, the August monthly candle demonstrated a powerful immediate continuation off of the past few months’ setup and trend continuation pattern. A few important things on our radar inform us that September likely won’t be as easy or one directional.


The main takeaway is that the August month end was able to wrap up around the monthly range’s high indicating that the bull train is still in full control in regards to immediate momentum. This means that heading into September there’s really only 2 on-trend and 1 countertrend scenario. On-trend would mean the standard ‘hold half and go’ monthly setup or the immediate continuation higher and higher without looking back. The countertrend would be a reversal pattern taking place that threatens the August month’s range of 3524-3254.

What’s next? August closed at 3494 and we must be mentally prepared for some likely consolidation/digestion as we head into September given what we see on our radar and the potential of being whipped back and forth.

A summary of our game plan:

Treat today as a tight range 3510s-3480s for the time being given yesterday’s pattern.
Need to keep monitoring the situation with the key support of 3478 to see if price is able to get out of Monday’s tight range of 3510s-3480s.
In addition, the overall range for this week remains 3533-3424 per our calculations. This means that there’s still more potential downside risk than upside for this week’s consolidation/digestion/backtest purposes until priven wrong. This only remains valid when price action is below 3533, otherwise it would open up further levels that we’ve calculated.
Month of August gained about 7% on monthly closing basis vs July. This means that heading into September must be mentally prepared for some potential digestion/consolidation/backtest vs larger supports in order for price action reset and attempt to ramp again.

Immediate trending support remain the same at 3478 where the former represents the Friday’s low area before the breakout into 3500 and towards 3533 key levels.
Bigger supports are Aug 26 low area of 3432 which matches with one of our key homework support levels. In addition, the trending daily 20EMA at 3400s as of writing. Price action is about 100~ points away or 3% from the main trending support on daily chart
In order to prepare for any violent price action shifts, mean reversions or sentiment, our ongoing shit hits the fan level (SHTF) is located at ES 3350 as we’ve aligned multiple timeframes with this calculation. A break below this level would be a significant trend change on all the important timeframes such as daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly. Then, if price maintaining below would be a huge hint.

See chart reviews and projections on the Emini S&P 500.

Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.

© 2020 Copyright Ricky Wen - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in