S&P 500: Revealing the "Real" Story About the Record High

By: EWI

Financial headlines do not always tell the full story

Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper than the headline to find out what really happened.

You know, like what's suggested by the television title "True Hollywood Story," or the BBC's "Real Story."

Sometimes getting the real scoop simply satisfies one's curiosity and is more entertainment than anything else. But, at other times, digging deeper into a subject can help one draw an important conclusion that may affect one's life -- or investments.

For example, consider this August 18 Washington Post headline:

U.S. stocks hit record high, ending shortest bear market in history

That headline was referring to the S&P 500 index. Of course, it suggests that a new rip-roaring bull market may be at hand. A new investor might say, "It's time to jump into the market with both feet."

Now, look at this August 22 CNBC headline:

The S&P 500′s return to a record doesn't tell the full story with 60% of stocks still with losses

Ah, this puts a whole new twist on the index returning to a record high. Of course, it suggests that the rally is not "deep," given it's being driven by less than the half of the index's components. That's important information for an investor.

Elliott Wave International's August 21 U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly publication which provides near-term forecasts for major U.S. financial markets, dug even deeper into the behavior of the stock market:

The S&P made a new high today, but the push was attended by negative breadth and negative up/down volume. While the S&P rallied 0.34% today (11.65 points), 56% of the index's issues closed down for the day and just 44% closed up. The new high was attended by Big Board advancing volume of just 33.6% and declining volume of 66.4%. According to SentimenTrader.com, the volume measures were the worst ever for a 0.34% rally dating back to 1962.

Indeed, Elliott Wave International's market experts regularly review more than 100 technical indicators in their analytical work.

As you might imagine, the single most important factor to be considered when making a stock market forecast is the Elliott wave model.

This quote from the book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter, provides insight:

In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure. Three of these waves, which are labeled 1, 3 and 5, actually effect the directional movement. They are separated by two countertrend interruptions, which are labeled 2 and 4. The two interruptions are apparently a requisite for overall directional movement to occur.

[Ralph N.] Elliott noted three consistent aspects of the five-wave form. They are: Wave 2 never moves beyond the start of wave 1; wave 3 is never the shortest wave; wave 4 never enters the price territory of wave 1.

R.N. Elliott did not specifically say that there is only one overriding form, the "five-wave" pattern, but that is undeniably the case. At any time, the market may be identified as being somewhere in the basic five-wave pattern at the largest degree of trend. Because the five-wave pattern is the overriding form of market progress, all other patterns are subsumed by it.

If you are interested in learning more about the Elliott wave method of analyzing and forecasting financial markets, know that Elliott Wave International has made the online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, available to you for free.

The only requirement is a Club EWI membership. Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. There are no obligations as a Club EWI member.

Start reading the Wall Street classic for free by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

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