Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Gold Is the Winner of the U.S. Presidential Election - 31st Oct 20
Gold and Silver Prepare For Another Price Advance - 31st Oct 20
Gold Is Likely to Win This Election - 31st Oct 20
Why Trump Can Still Win 2020 Election - Establishment Mainstream Media Wrong Again? - 31st Oct 20
Why Budgies Need their Own Feeders - Parakeets Feeding UK - 31st Oct 20
Can Trump Still Win? US Presidential Election Forecast Matrix 2020 - 30th Oct 20
Why a Biden Win will Keep Metals Prices Rocking - 30th Oct 20
Is Silver the Next Bitcoin? - 30th Oct 20
A New World Monetary Order Is Coming - 30th Oct 20
Do These Explanations Make Sense for This Intraday Stock Market Turn - 30th Oct 20
US Presidential Election Forecast Matrix, Stock Market Uncertainty - 29th Oct 20
Stock Market Turning? Look For These Support Levels - 29th Oct 20
Silver: A Conceivable Dead-Cat-Bounce on the Cards - 29th Oct 20
Stocks are Strong but be Aware of this Continuing Pattern - 29th Oct 20
The Most Profitable Way To Play The Gold Boom - 29th Oct 20
Why You Should Hire An Accountant To Complete Your Tax Return - 29th Oct 20
Global Banking: Some Sectors Look as "Precarious as Ever" - 28th Oct 20
Silver Price Minor Dip Possible Before 2nd Major Upleg Starts - 28th Oct 20
�� How to Carve a Simple and Scary Pumpkin Face for Covid Halloween 2020 �� - 28th Oct 20
Gold Price One Last Dip Likely Then Major Upleg to New Highs - 28th Oct 20
Smart Money Is Going All-In On This New Gold Frontier - 28th Oct 20
Gold Stocks Still Correcting - 27th Oct 20
Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse? - 27th Oct 20
Silver's Coming Double Trigger Shotgun Price Explosion - 27th Oct 20
The $126 Billion Gold Opportunity in Australia - 27th Oct 20
Tips to Breeze through Your Spanish Classes Online - 27th Oct 20
Try The “Compounding Capital Gains” Strategy Today - 26th Oct 20
UK Coronavirus Broken Test and Trace System, 5 Days for Covid-19 Results! - 26th Oct 20
How the Coronavirus is Exacerbating Global Inequality, Hunger - 26th Oct 20
The Top Gold Stock for 2021 - 26th Oct 20
Corporate Earnings Season: Here's What Stock Investors Need to Know - 25th Oct 20
�� Halloween 2020 TESCO Supermarkes Shoppers Covid Panic Buying! �� - 25th Oct 20
Three Unstoppable Forces Set to Drive Silver Prices - 25th Oct 20
Car Insurance And Insurance Claims and Options - 25th Oct 20
Best Pressure Washer Review - Karcher K7 Full Control Unboxing - 25th Oct 20
Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally - 23rd Oct 20
Nasdaq Retests 11,735 Support - 23rd Oct 20
America’s Political and Financial Institutions Are Broken - 23rd Oct 20
Sayonara U.S.A. - 23rd Oct 20
Economic Contractions Overshadow ASEAN-6 Recovery - 23rd Oct 20
Doji Clusters Show Clear Support Ranges for Stock Market S&P500 Index - 23rd Oct 20
Silver Market - 22nd Oct 20
Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus - 22nd Oct 20
Hacking Wall Street to Close the Wealth Gap - 22nd Oct 20
Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout - 22nd Oct 20 -
NVIDIA CANCELS RTX 3070 16b RTX 3080 20gb GPU's Due to GDDR6X Memory Supply Issues - 22nd Oct 20
Zafira B Leaking Water Under Car - 22nd Oct 20
The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro - 21st Oct 20
Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price - 21st Oct 20
Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone - 21st Oct 20
High-Profile Billionaire Gives Urgent Message to Stock Investors - 21st Oct 20
What's it Like to be a Budgie - Unique in a Cage 4K VR 360 - 21st Oct 20
Auto Trading: A Beginner Guide to Automation in Forex - 21st Oct 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? - 20th Oct 20
Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation - 20th Oct 20
Last Chance for this FREE Online Trading Course Worth $129 value - 20th Oct 20
More Short-term Stock Market Weakness Ahead - 20th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 32 Inch Curved Gaming Monitor Unboxing and Stand Assembly and Range of Movement - 20th Oct 20
Best Retail POS Software In Australia - 20th Oct 20
From Recession to an Ever-Deeper One - 19th Oct 20
Wales Closes Border With England, Stranded Motorists on Severn Bridge? Covid-19 Police Road Blocks - 19th Oct 20
Commodity Bull Market Cycle Starts with Euro and Dollar Trend Changes - 19th Oct 20
Stock Market Melt-Up Triggered a Short Squeeze In The NASDAQ and a Utilities Breakout - 19th Oct 20
Silver is Like Gold on Steroids - 19th Oct 20
Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth - 19th Oct 20
“Hypergrowth” Is Spilling Into the Stock Market Like Never Before - 19th Oct 20
Is Oculus Quest 2 Good Upgrade for Samsung Gear VR Users? - 19th Oct 20
Low US Dollar Risky for Gold - 17th Oct 20
US 2020 Election: Are American's ready for Trump 2nd Term Twilight Zone Presidency? - 17th Oct 20
Custom Ryzen 5950x, 5900x, 5800x , RTX 3080, 3070 64gb DDR4 Gaming PC System Build Specs - 17th Oct 20
Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again - 16th Oct 20
US Economic Recovery Is in Need of Some Rescue - 16th Oct 20
Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today - 16th Oct 20
Why Now is BEST Time to Upgrade Your PC System for Years - Ryzen 5000 CPUs, Nvidia RTX 3000 GPU's - 16th Oct 20
Beware of Trump’s October (November?) Election Surprise - 15th Oct 20
Stock Market SPY Retesting Critical Resistance From Fibonacci Price Amplitude Arc - 15th Oct 20
Fed Chairman Begs Congress to Stimulate Beleaguered US Economy - 15th Oct 20
Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? - 15th Oct 20
Things you Should know before Trade Cryptos - 15th Oct 20
Gold and Silver Price Ready For Another Rally Attempt - 14th Oct 20
Do Low Interest Rates Mean Higher Stocks? Not so Fast… - 14th Oct 20
US Debt Is Going Up but Leaving GDP Behind - 14th Oct 20
Dell S3220DGF 31.5 Inch VA Gaming Monitor Amazon Prime Day Bargain Price! But WIll it Get Delivered? - 14th Oct 20
Karcher K7 Pressure Washer Amazon Prime Day Bargain 51% Discount! - 14th Oct 20
Top Strategies Day Traders Adopt - 14th Oct 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Get Rich Investing in Stocks by Riding the Electron Wave

Stock Market Re-testing the Recent High

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2020 Apr 27, 2020 - 02:46 PM GMT

By: Andre_Gratian

Stock-Markets

Current Position of the Market

SPX Long-term trend: An “official” bear market has now been declared.

SPX Intermediate trend: Intermediate low mid-year.

Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily-basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discuss longer market trends.

Daily market analysis of the short-term trend is reserved for subscribers. If you would like to sign up for a FREE 4-week trial period of daily comments, please let me know at anvi1962@cableone.net


Re-testing the Recent High

Point & Figure overview of SPX

Intermediate trend: Estimated top of countertrend rally ~2930 (?) May have fallen short of target!

Important cycles followed

I follow only a few cycles that I consider reliable in my analysis. This is complemented by the analysis of Erik Hadik (www.insiidetrack.com).

The 80-d cycle was due on 4/8(actual 4/3); comes next on 6/8; 40-wk ~7/15; 4.5-yr or 9-yr ~7/15.

Market Analysis (Charts courtesy of QCharts)

SPX- IWM weekly charts:

Both indices have now traded in a range for three weeks. This week’s rally looks as if it could be a re-test of the high made last week. The next reversal could be the beginning of a substantial decline if the SPX 2720 level is broken. IWM shows no sign of being willing to improve its relative strength to SPX.



SPX daily chart

After making a high at 2879, SPX had a quick 52-point decline into the next minor cycle low, breaking the primary countertrend rally trend line in the process. The high fell short of the 2930 target which had been projected. The subsequent rally remained outside of the trend line and reached 2845, which looked as if it might be the high prior to the next reversal. But Friday’s rebound suggests that we could move a little higher (perhaps even make another try for the 2930 projection although odds are poor) before rolling over to challenge the 2721 support.

The 2721 level is a very important level because all the trading which has taken place above it is likely to be distribution that, on the P&F chart, has the appearance of being a substantial top with a count already capable of taking the market to a new low. Frankly, after the initial low of 2192, I had not expected a bear market rally of this magnitude; but it gives the bulls who have remained invested a second chance to liquidate their positions before the next phase of the bear market gets underway. The damage which COVID-19 has already done to the world economy is far greater than that experienced during the “great recession” of 2008-2009. And when, with no economic recovery in sight, the full extent of the damage being done sets in, the stock market’s reaction should be even more severe than it has been, so far. At the very least, another substantial decline should take place into mid-year -- an important cycle bottom which could create a market low of intermediate proportion.

The indicators have started to display negative divergence and, unless strength returns immediately, it should be simply a matter of days before they roll over and give a full-fledged sell signal.



SPX hourly chart

The hourly chart breaks down the formation into more detail, allowing us to follow the rally from the last minor cycle low more closely. On this chart, the oscillators tell us that there should be a little more to go in the rally from 2727 before it comes to an end. Friday’s push has created some positive divergence in the CCI. This means that we may not be quite done with Friday’s rally. When we are, we should reverse and challenge the 2721-2727 support line. Breaking it should start (continue) the second phase of the decline.

UUP (dollar ETF) daily

After making a new high, UUP had a sharp retracement, found support on its 50-dma, and has had a small rebound which is holding and may continue to do so until it gets pulled down again by the 3-m cycle (which it appears to follow closely). The indicators are suggesting that it is currently in a short-term uptrend with no sign of an immediate reversal.


GDX (gold miners) daily

GDX had a sharp decline followed by a sharp rally to a new intermediate high. Last week, it may have met an interim projection which should create a short-term pull-back. We’ll monitor that retracement to see when it is ready to continue its uptrend. After completing this retracement, GDX should reach 39-40 for an intermediate high.

PAAS (Pan American Silver Corp) daily

PAAS has also reached a near-term target (near 23) and should also have a short-term retracement. Longer-term, it has a target of about 41, but I do not have a time projection for it. On a fairly short-term basis, 31 is attainable.

BNO (U.S. Brent Oil fund) weekly

BNO has made a new low and could find temporary support on a parallel line, but this is not likely to be the end of its decline before reaching its final destination.

Summary

SPX is making a secondary top which may simply need a finishing touch. The next short-term reversal should quickly re-test the 2720 level, and once it is broken, a new low is likely, possibly by mid-year.

Andre 

FREE TRIAL SUBSCRIPTON

For a FREE 4-week trial, send an email to anvi1962@cableone.net, or go to www.marketurningpoints.com and click on "subscribe". There, you will also find subscription options, payment plans, weekly newsletters, and general information. By clicking on "Free Newsletter" you can get a preview of the latest newsletter which is normally posted on Sunday afternoon (unless it happens to be a 3-day weekend, in which case it could be posted on Monday).

Disclaimer - The above comments about the financial markets are based purely on what I consider to be sound technical analysis principles uncompromised by fundamental considerations. They represent my own opinion and are not meant to be construed as trading or investment advice, but are offered as an analytical point of view which might be of interest to those who follow stock market cycles and technical analysis.

Andre Gratian Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules