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FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks

Companies / China Stocks Feb 17, 2020 - 04:31 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Companies

The juggernaut that is Artificial Intelligence continues to rumble along towards an inexorable future, one that most still fail to grasp the magnitude of the changes that are just around the corner as humans think in linear terms whilst the AI trend is EXPONENTIAL. Where developments that even the proponents of AI thought would take several years are taking place in mere MONTHS! That is the power of the unfolding AI MEGA-TREND!

AI has already CHANGED THE WORLD! EXPONENTIALLY! You have an AI super computer right in your pocket for likely less than £1000!

Especially, when one marries AI with other big world changing tech mega-trend "Quantum Computing"! Put the 2 together and we are literally going to see an explosion in SUPER INTELLGENCE that would soon far exceed that of human intelligence, following which it won't be that many years before the AI exceeds the intelligence of the sum of ALL humans! For better or worse, that's the path we are on.


And all those who say AI can be controlled are going to be proven wrong, as new technologies tend to be first sequestered towards military aims. So whilst we focus on the benefits of AI in reality AI is a POWERFUL WEAPON and so the world is in an AI arms race, commercial, economic and military AI arms race.

Here I a review the performance of my list of Top AI stocks, of how they performed during 2019 and current technical state going into 2020 that resolve in an updated list of buying levels of where the stocks 'could' trade down to during a correction for potential buying opportunities, which may prove opportune given that my opening 2020 expectations are for a correction in the general stock indices.

My list of AI stocks has more or less remained static for many years, with the likes of Google, Microsoft and Intel having been on the list for more than a decade! Though personally I only really started walking up to the developments in AI around 2014, as up until then I had remained skeptical of the hype that was AI given my experience from the late 1990's when I actually spent a good 6-9 months programming a neutral net given the hype in the media and movies at the time. But soon realised that there was a huge gap between AI reality and the media hype and so become skeptical of all things AI for the next 15 years or so. But gradually during the early 2010's there were signs of that which had been promised was taking it's first steps towards becoming reality. Where by 2016 I was fully converted to the emerging reality of the AI mega-trend, investigating AI stocks and making the following video to help spread the word.

So when I say investing, I mean INVESTING, and not to focus on intra year volatility which is only good for accumulating more exposure on dips.

The main thing where AI stocks are concerned is to HAVE EXPOSURE! Because without any exposure your not riding the AI train and so unless you are prepared to immerse yourself in AI, i.e. trundle along to the many AI platforms out there such as by Google. Microsoft or Elon Musk's OpenAI then your only real way to capitalise on the AI mega-trend is buy OWNING AI stocks.

This graph further illustrates the magnitude of the change currently under way, where just 2 primary AI stocks, Apple and Microsoft are now worth more than the entire German stock market!

INVESTING in AI

Investing means INVESTING. Which is definitely a different mind set to Trading. For instance whenever the AI stocks take a tumble then my instincts are to buy more! Though of course I do keep track of what's happening to effect each stock. For instance AMD's Ryzen and Threadripper processors have been giving Intel a run for their money for past 3 years. Where my initial expectations were that Intel would soon squash AMD like a bug by releasing it's next generation of powerful processors. But never happened! instead Intel has been losing ground and market share to AMD. Thus making me reluctant to add more to Intel holdings despite several opportunities.

For primers on all of these stocks and how to invest in them then do check out my following earlier articles:

Top 15 AI Stocks Buying Levels Q1 2020.

The whole of this analysis including Buying Levels for 15 AI Tech Stocks was first been made available to Patrons who support my work: AI Stocks 2019 Review and Buying Levels Q1 2020

14. BAIDU (BIDU)

And last but least is Baidu, the only chinese stock on my AI mega-trend investing list.

BAIDU DOWN 24% on the year!

THE ONLY STOCK TO END 2019 DOWN ON THE YEAR. Therefore it's BYE, BYE Baidu from my list because it illustrates that no matter how good one thinks fundamentals are for a Chinese stock, and no matter what it's past performance maybe. Investing in chinese stocks is ASKING for TROUBLE!

Chinese companies are NOT like western companies. They are part and parcel of Chinese government, they do not operate in terms of maximising profits which I guess why Baidu was LAST on my list of stocks! And why I don't include other Chinese tech giants despite often being asked why the likes of Tencent or Huawei are not on my list.

The US War with China mega-trend is inevitable which means Chinese companies should be kept well away from as they form part of an unfolding corporate tech war against western corps as dictated to by the Chinese totalitarian government. You think the chinese state is going to allow foreigners to profit from chinese corporations? Think again! Every stock up 25%, 35%, even 75%, Baidu DOWN 24%! I get the message loud and clear!

Chinese stocks are just NOT WORTH THE RISK. And as Baidu illustrates the rewards are just not there for the risks investors are taking!

So out you go Baidu! No more Chinese AI stocks on my list.

The rest of this analysis including Buying Levels for 15 AI Tech Stocks has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: AI Stocks 2019 Review and Buying Levels Q1 2020

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Recent analysis includes :

Scheduled Analysis Includes:

  • UK Housing market series
  • Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
  • Bitcoin trend forecast
  • Euro Dollar Futures
  • EUR/RUB
  • US House Prices trend forecast update

And ensure you are subscribed to my ALWAYS FREE newsletter for my next in-depth analysis.

Your Analyst.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2019 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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