British Pound GBP Trend and Elliott Wave Analysis

Currencies / British Pound Feb 13, 2020 - 05:49 PM GMT

This is part 4 of my British Pound Analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast for 2020

British Pound 2019 Review (Part1)
Political Implications
Fundamentals
US Dollar Index
GBP Long-term analysis
GBP Trend Analysis
Elliott Wave Theory
GBP 2020 Forecast Conclusion

However the whole of analysis was first made available to Patrons who support my work: British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

GBP Trend Analysis

GBP has enjoyed a powerful Uptrend into the end of 2029, hitting a high of 1.35.14. Most recent price action has seen sterling correct to support zone of 1.28 to 1.30, last trading at 1.306 in an attempt at unwinding it's over bought state.

There is heavy support under sterling all the way from 1.30, 1.28, 1.25, and then 1.20.

Whilst resistance is at 1.35, 1.375, 1.44. and 1.475, that is the likely upper limits for what one can expect during 2020.

TREND CHANNELS - GBP is trading in a powerful up channel, currently just managing to stay within it. However, I don't think this channel will be sustainable for 2020 as it would imply we could see sterling trading at 1.70 by year end!

TRENDLINES - A break of the trendline from 1.35 will likely signal a trend to resistance at 1.44. Whilst I suspect GBP's support trend currently at about 1.30 to break, i.e. the trajectory is not sustainable, thus a new support trend like is likely to form, maybe off a low of 1.28. over the next few weeks.

MACD - Is overbought and suggests further consolidation is likely before GBP resumes it's bullish trend to first target a break of 1.35. Though this suggest to expect GBP to mark time before trending higher rather than to trend lower.

ELLIOT WAVES - Keeping it simple. The GBP bear market bottomed at 1.15 in 2017. Wave1 peaked at 1.44 in early 2018. Wave 2 abc terminated in August 2019. Which suggested to expect an impulse Wave 3. So far price action has been impulsive in nature. Thus EWT implies we are in a GBP bull market that should see sterling trade well north of the previous high of 1.44. Maybe even 1.70 IS achievable, though likely not in 2020 but could be during 2021!

British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020

The rest of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020

Political Implications
Fundamentals
US Dollar Index
GBP Long-term analysis
GBP Trend Analysis
Elliott Wave Theory
GBP 2020 Forecast Conclusion

So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

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Nadeem Walayat

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

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