China Coronavirus Infections Spread vs Forecast Pandemic Update Video
Politics / Pandemic Jan 31, 2020 - 12:29 PM GMTThe Coronavirus continues it's exponential spread across China, this despite Chinese state propaganda peddling a line of measures taken especially earlier in the month having limited the spread of the virus that is not being born out by data released that on a daily basis shows the spread is exponential to across the whole of China and likely neighbouring nations.
My analysis and concluding forecast of 28th January based on data up until the 27th of January utilised trend analysis to forecast that the Coronavirus could infect over 1 million people by the end of February 2020, which given the apparent fatality rate of 3.5% at the time converted into an death toll of at least 35,000. Which if it transpired would be far worse than the 2002-2003 SARS pandemic that infected 8,098 over 8 months resulting in 774 deaths, and thus the Coronavirus would have significant economic and market consequences.
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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