Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Why Palladium Is on a Tear

Commodities / Palladium Jan 29, 2020 - 02:18 PM GMT

By: MoneyMetals

Commodities

Physical palladium and rhodium markets are buzzing. Reported prices for both metals leapt higher in recent days.

The story behind palladium’s move is that a physical shortage has developed in London. Traders sold metal they didn’t physically possess. Now they are being asked to deliver the bars and they are scrambling to secure the metal needed, bidding prices higher.

It looks like bullion bankers selling paper metal are finally getting called for selling way more than they can actually deliver!

People have complained about this practice in precious metals markets for decades.



More and more contracts have been sold, but inventories of actual physical metal have not kept pace. Price discovery is broken when the paper price of metal is detached from physical supply-and-demand fundamentals.

Today, there are hundreds of paper ounces floating around for every ounce of physical metal eligible for actual delivery.

As soon as a few contract holders lose confidence in their ability to redeem the paper for actual metal, the jig is up. The rush for physical bars will drain exchange vaults quickly and anyone still holding paper when the music stops will be out of luck.

That may be happening now in the market for palladium.

Sellers with an obligation to deliver physical metal can lease bars, rather than purchase them. But that is now a very expensive proposition. Lease rates spiked to near 30% last week in London. Lessees must promise to return the quantity leased plus 30% in additional palladium ounces.

New Cautions on Rhodium

Rhodium prices have surged along with palladium. Price discovery in rhodium works differently than for other precious metals, so investors need to be especially careful.

The “spot” price for rhodium surged to $9,985 last week. However, that price does not come from a market where regular trading produces live, real-time prices.

Rather, the rhodium ask price is simply declared by major refiners. Johnson Matthey is one of the firms which publishes a price.

Rhodium 2-Year Chart



The price is generally updated twice per day during the trading week.

Lately the published ask prices jumped dramatically higher. Bid prices, on the other hand, have not kept up.

The bid/ask spread in the thinly traded rhodium market has always been wider than in other precious metals, but it’s wider now than ever. Current bids are roughly $2,000 below the published ask price.

If there really are industrial users paying the refiners’ $10,000 ask price for physical rhodium, it is quite an opportunity for arbitrage. Traders could theoretically purchase bars at the bid price and sell them at a very healthy profit to anyone paying the ask price.

That isn’t happening, at least as far as we can determine. Someone may have published a $10,000 ask price, but we can’t locate anyone actually paying that sum for rhodium bars.

Despite what the surging “spot” price for rhodium may imply, the bid for physical rhodium remains weak.

Money Metals has taken dozens of calls per day from sellers trying to cash in on spot prices near $10,000/oz. Many are disappointed to find actual prices are far lower which is a result of wholesalers dropping their bids. We believe one major rhodium buyer will cease further buying soon.

The rhodium market is tiny and illiquid. Price discrepancies like the one we are seeing are common. Our advice to clients would be not to put much credence in the “spot” price they see published until the spread is much tighter than it currently is.

The true price of rhodium, like all assets, is based on what real buyers are actually paying. That is currently closer to $8,000/oz, not $10,000/oz.

By Clint Siegner

MoneyMetals.com

Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, perhaps the nation's fastest-growing dealer of low-premium precious metals coins, rounds, and bars. Siegner, a graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

© 2019 Clint Siegner - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in