UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019
ElectionOracle / General Election 2019 Dec 11, 2019 - 12:28 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The 2019 December 12th general election will be won and lost in the marginal seats that is be the focus of my fourth in-depth analysis in this series that aims to fine tune my core election forecast based on UK house prices as the most accurate predictor of UK General Elections.
First a recap of my seats projections analysis to date:
- UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
- Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
- Marginal Seats (patrons) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
- Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
- Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
The top 30 or so marginal Labour and Conservative seats will determine the outcome of this General Election just as they had for the 2017 General Election that all of the pollsters and pundits got so badly wrong i.e. instead of Tories winning most of Labours most marginal seats it was Labour who won most of the Tories most marginal seats.
Therefore can the Tories win back seats lost in 2017 and more? Or has Corbyn succeeded in buying the election by bribing voters to the tune of an £135 billion increase in Government spending per year.
BrExit Party Critical For Election 2019
Following Nigel Farage's spectacular EU elections win in May 2019, was right up until the end of October threatening to put up Brexit party candidates in every constituency be they Labour or Conservative which on balance would have worked in favour of the unfolding REMAIN Alliance, largely to the benefit of the Liberal Democrats.
However, Nigel Farage faced with likely election outcomes of Boris Johnson's mild Brexit vs a Labour / Lib Dem / SNP REMAIN alliance in favour of at least holding a second referendum, with the Lib Dems going one step further and promising to channel Brexit should they hold the balance of power. Farage made the most tactically correct decision of standing down candidates in Tory seats and so to only really target 242-262 Labour seats much to the anger of many would be Brexit Party candidates, some of whom have decided to stand as independant's. Whilst for others Nigel Farage did not go far enough in standing down candidates so as to give the Tories the maximum chance of securing a majority that saw 4 Brexit party MEP's defect to the Conservatives.
The consequences of Nigel Farage's decision is clearly to bolster Tory seats. Whilst at the same time putting Labour LEAVE voting seats under pressure as the Brexit party will soak up a significant number of Labour voters who voted for Brexit but do not want to vote for the Tories. Which could see Labour LEAVE constituencies vote by as much as 15% in the Brexit party's favour giving the Tories a chance to snatch a number of marginal's off Labour.
Another consequences of Farage's decision is that it scuppers Lib Dem dreams of winning over a dozen Tory seats by concentrating the REMAIN vote. Instead now the Lib Dem's will be lucky to hold onto their current tally of 20 seats.
So in determining which way margin seats will swing the primary factor will be if the voters in the marginal's voted for LEAVE and by how large a percentage. For instance the Tories are unlikely to lose any of their existing seats that voted by more than 52% for LEAVE in 2017. Whilst Labour are likely to LOSE heavily in LEAVE leaning Labour marginal's to the Tories. With likely outlier constituencies also to go to the Tories where the LEAVE vote was greater than 60%.
Another factor to consider is the relative swing to the Tories today compared to 2017 i.e. by this time in the campaign in 2017 the Tories were polling 44%, Labour 35% and the Lib Dems on 9%. BBC's poll tracker (4th Dec) puts the Tories on 42%, Labour 32% and the Lib Dems on 14%.
So basically a 10% Tory poll lead against a 9% lead in 2017 that converts into an average extra 400 votes for the Tories per constituency over 2017.
Conservative Top Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour or Lib Dems
| Constituency | Region | Majority | Swing Needed | % Leave Vote | |||
| 1 |
|
South East | 31 | 0.03% | 60.3% | ||
| 2 | Richmond Park | London | 45 | 0.04% | 28.7% | ||
| 3. | Stirling | Scotland | 148 | 0.15% | 32.3% | ||
| 4 | St Ives | South West | 312 | 0.30% | 54.8% | ||
| 5 | Pudsey | Yorkshire and the Humber | 331 | 0.31% | 48.6% | ||
| 6 | Hastings and Rye | South East | 346 | 0.32% | 55.9% | ||
| 7 | Chipping Barnet | London | 353 | 0.32% | 51.6% | ||
| 8 |
|
East of England | 345 | 0.34% | 73% | ||
| 9 |
|
Wales | 360 | 0.36% | 55.3% | ||
| 10 | Calder Valley | Yorkshire and the Humber | 609 | 0.52% | 53.2% | ||
| 11 | Norwich North | East of England | 507 | 0.55% | 56.7% | ||
| 12 | Broxtowe | East Midlands | 863 | 0.78% |
52.5% | ||
| 13 | Stoke-on-Trent South | West Midlands | 883 | 0.8% | 72.1% | ||
| 14 |
|
West Midlands | 720 | 0.81% | 66.2% | ||
| 15 | Bolton West | North West | 936 | 0.92% | 55.6% | ||
| 16 | Aberconwy | Wales | 635 | 0.99% | 52.2% | ||
| 17 | Northampton North | East Midlands | 807 | 1% | 60.3% | ||
| 18. | Hendon | London | 1,072 | 1.03% | 41.6% | ||
| 19. | Mansfield | East Midlands | 1,057 | 1.05% | 70.9% | ||
| 20. | Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East | North East | 1,020 | 1.07% | 65.3% | ||
| 21. | Milton Keynes South | South East | 1,725 | 1.34% | 53.1% | ||
| 22. | Northampton South | East Midlands | 1,159 | 1.41% | 59% | ||
| 23. | Pendle | North West | 1,279 | 1.43% | 63.2% | ||
| 24. | Milton Keynes North | South East | 1,915 | 1.50% | 49.7% | ||
| 25. | Morecambe and Lunesdale | North West | 1,399 | 1.53% | 58.2% | ||
| 26. | Finchley and Golders Green | London | 1,657 | 1.58% | 31.1% | ||
| 27. | Camborne and Redruth | South West | 1,577 | 1.63% | 58.4% | ||
| 28. | Putney | London | 1,554 | 1.66% | 27.8% | ||
| 29. | Harrow East | London | 1,757 | 1.73% | 47.5% | ||
| 30. | Watford | East of England | 2,092 | 1.78% | 51.2% | ||
| 31. | Copeland | North West | 1,695 | 1.97% | 59.2% | ||
| 32. | Morley and Outwood | Yorkshire and the Humber | 2,104 | 2.01% | 59.8% | ||
| 33. | Vale of Glamorgan | Wales | 2,190 | 2.04% | 52.6% | ||
| 34. | Corby | East Midlands | 2,690 | 2.24% | 60.1% | ||
| 35. | Cheltenham | South West | 2,569 | 2.25% | 42.9% | ||
| 36. | Swindon South | South West | 2,464 | 2.40% | 51.7% | ||
| 37. | Worcester | West Midlands | 2,490 | 2.42% | 53.7% | ||
| 38. | Gordon | Scotland | 2,607 | 2.43% | 44.3% | ||
| 39. | Crawley | South East | 2,457 | 2.44% | 58.4% | ||
| 40. | Blackpool North and Cleveleys | North West | 2,023 | 2.47% | 66.9% |
Of the top 40 seats where the Tories 2017 majority is less than 2.5%, and where the REMAIN vote out numbers the LEAVE vote by a greater margin, adjusted for the 1% better relative standing in the polls than in 2017, then the Tories risk losing 7 seats to Labour or the Lib Dems. With likely a couple more outlier seats at risk. Thus the total seats the Tories could lose is capped at 9 seats from where they stood in June 2017, i.e. the Tory seats floor is 308.
Top Labour, Lib Dem & SNP Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Tories
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UK General Election Forecast
- UK House Prices 322 - UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast (24th November 2019)
- Manifestos Bribes 311 - Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast (30th November 2019)
- Economy 324 - What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019 (4th December 2019)
- Marginal Seats (326) (UK General Election Tory and Labour Marginal Seats Analysis, Implied Forecast 2019 (7th December 2019)
- Social Mood (patrons) (Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 (9th December 2019)
- Final Forecast (patrons) - Opinion Polls, Betting Markets and Final Forecast Conclusion (11th December 2019)
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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