What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019
ElectionOracle / UK Economy Dec 04, 2019 - 10:54 AM GMTIt's the economy stupid! coined by Bill Clinton's strategist James Carville in 1992. The party in government tends to lose elections to the opposition on the basis of where the economy stands at the time of the general election. So whilst Boris Johnson's "Get Brexit Done" headline grabbing mantra sounds like it could deliver the Tories enough votes to win. However, if the economy is on the slide then all slogans and promises will be ignored, much as was the case for Theresa May's 2017 all about getting Brexit done election campaign.
So the focus of this analysis is where the economy stands and it's direction of travel relative to where economy stood in the run up to the June 2017 General Election as one of the 9 key election forecasting lessons learned from the outcome of the 2017 general election.
UK General Election Forecast Analysis
The aim of this series of analysis is to further fine tune my core election forecast based on the single most accurate predictor of UK general elections, house prices momentum that concluded in a forecast of xxx seats first made available to Patrons who support my work on the 24th of November 2019.
- UK House Prices Momentum General Election Core Forecast
- Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast
- What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019
- Marginal Seats, Social Mood and Momentum Election Impact
- Opinion Polls and Betting Markets, UK General Election Forecast Conclusion
My last analysis on the Manifestos pushed the seats forecast in favour of the Labour party, putting the Tory seats tally stands at xxx ahead of my final forecast that I aim to complete several days before polling day (12th December).
What the economy Predicts for the UK General Election 1 of 5
- UK Economy - GDP Growth
- UK INFLATION - CPI / RPI / REAL
- UK Unemployment Fake Statistics
- REAL TERMS AVERAGE EARNINGS
- UK General Election Tory Seats Projections
UK Economy - GDP Growth
At the top of prospective voters wish lists is a government that can competently manage the UK economy. In which respect the last Labour government failed in spectacular style by delivering the worst recession since WW2! Which Jeremy Corbyn hopes that 10 years on most voters will have forgotten just how catastrophically the last Labour Government ended.
The electorate clearly favour the party of Government to be typically delivering GDP growth of at least 2% per annum if they want to be rewarded with a significant re-election majority.
2015
That was the case in 2015 with the last GDP statistics before voting day coming in at a +2.4% which was sustained during the period of Vote which resulted in the Tories being rewarded with a 'surprise' majority government.
2017
Saw 2% GDP going into the election which implied a smaller majority total than the 330 of 2015.
2019
What about 2019? We'll Poor old Boris Johnson is lumbered with a GDP growth rate of just 1% to Q3 (Sept 2019) AND FALLING! Which implies that the Tories could do WORSE than in 2017!
The rest of this analysis in my Forecasting the UK General Electon series has first been made available to Patrons who support my work:What the UK Economy Predicts for General Election 2019
- UK Economy - GDP Growth
- UK INFLATION - CPI / RPI / REAL
- UK Unemployment Fake Statistics
- REAL TERMS AVERAGE EARNINGS
- UK General Election Tory Seats Projections
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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