This week, Nancy Pelosi announced that the House would launch a formal impeachment inquiry. Is it a well-grounded argument, publicity stunt or reflection of the growing polarization inside the Democratic party? Storm in a tea cup or not, should Trump be worried? And gold?

What’s This All About?

On Tuesday, Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, announced that “the House of Representatives is moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry.” That’s a big shift among Democrats, who control the House. They were talking about the Trump impeachment for months and for a variety of reasons, but never launched the process. What changed their minds?

The impeachment inquiry is a response to revelations that President Donald Trump allegedly pressured the Ukrainian president to investigate the potential 2020 Democratic candidate Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. According to the White House summary of a 30-minute July 25 phone conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Trump said:

there’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution and a lot of people want to find out about that so whatever you can do with the Attorney General would be great. Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution so if you can look into it… It sounds horrible to me.

For us, it does not sound malicious, but we are not familiar with the diplomatic protocol and the nuances of the Constitutional law. Anyhow, according to Democrats, the problem is that Trump demanded a foreign country intervenes in the 2020 presidential election by digging up dirt on his potential opponent, and that he was possibly threatening Ukraine by saying he would withhold U.S. military aid unless they complied. Another issue is that the Trump administration was allegedly preventing the whistleblower’s complaint from being shared with Congress, which is against the law.

It’s an irony that it had been the Democrats who have in May 2018 written to the Ukrainian government, urging it to continue investigations into the alleged Trump-Russia collusion that was later found not to exist. Nevermind, the world of politics has seen weirder things already.

Can Trump Be Impeached?

Rightly or not, we are now headed toward an impeachment inquiry with Democrat leadership’s full backing. Can Trump be impeached? Sure, he can. Impeachments is, after all, not the removal from the post, but the adoption of charges by the House, which triggers a trial in the Senate. Now, the key is although the House is under the control of Democrats, the Senate is Republican. So, the removal of Trump is unlikely. The idea that two-thirds of Senators would vote against Republican-backed president in the election year is rather silly. According to the popular betting site, PredictIt, the odds that Trump will be convicted by the U.S. Senate are at around 18 percent.

Implications for Gold

What does it all mean for the gold market? As the odds of conviction are very low, the whole impeachments process shouldn’t have any significant impact on gold prices. It’s just theatre. But it may support gold prices, if the drama helps Democrats in the campaign. So far, Biden leads the polls, and he is considered to be neutral for the markets. But as Elizabeth Warren’s poll numbers rise, so does anxiety on Wall Street.

However, only 36 percent of registered voters support the impeachment. So, the impeachment may actually come back to bite the Democrats, just as Clinton’s impeachment damaged Republicans in the 1998 midterms. It would paradoxically support Trump and would be rather positive for the stock market (especially if Trump strikes finally the trade deal with China), and stocks prefer the status quo. Hence, such scenario could be negative for gold prices on the margin.

In the short-term, the rising political uncertainty may help gold. On Tuesday, gold gained, as the chart below shows.

Chart 1: Gold prices from September 24 to September 26, 2019

But we are skeptical whether all these revelations will have a significant impact on the gold market. Yesterday, the gold prices dropped. Trump faces legal problems since the very beginning, without any material effects.

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Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Market Overview Editor

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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