Conservative	289
Labour	247
Independent	35
Scottish National Party	35
Liberal Democrat	16
Democratic Unionist Party	10
Sinn Féin	7
The Independent Group for Change	5
Plaid Cymru	4
Green Party	1

Whilst it is a bit early to conclude in a definitive election forecast, nevertheless as highlighted earlier, I am expecting the Tories to GAIN seats at the next election under BJ, primarily against Labour and perhaps lose a few seats in strong remainer constituencies to the Lib Dems and SNP for a net gain of about 25 seats on the 2017 result which would deliver the Tories a working majority of about 20 seats to stand on around 335 MP's (preliminary forecast).

Betfair Betting Market Odds

The current betfair market price favours an No overall majority outcome trading on 1.6. Whilst the price for a Tory Majority is 3.05 which would translate into a profit of £205 for every £100 bet.

Given the level of political uncertainty, i.e. that BJ could be replaced! Then I would have preferred a little better pricing than currently on offer. Nevertheless it may be worth a nibble now and hope that Westminister Extreme Chaos delivers better odds over the coming weeks, though looking at the dogs dinner that is the Labour party then that hoped for better pricing may not materialise.

Westminister BrExit Chaos Puts Britain into a Pre-Civil War State
Boris Johnson a Crippled Prime Minister
Boris Johnson's "Do or Die, Dead in a Ditch" Brexit Strategy
General Election 2019 - Opinion Polls
UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds
British Pound vs Brexit Chaos
British Pound Fundamental Analysis
USD Index Analysis
GBP Long-term Analysis
GBP Trend Analysis
British Pound GBP Forecast Conclusion

The whole of this analysis has first been made available to Patrons who support my work: https://www.patreon.com/posts/british-pound-vs-29840414

So for immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

Scheduled Analysis

Bitcoin Update
UK Housing market series
Stock Market Trend Forecast Sept to Dec
Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
US Dollar Index
NASDAQ
EuroDollar Futures
EUR/RUB

Recent Analysis includes:

Your Analyst

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.