Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Paulson's Bold Bailout Plan Supportive of a Stock Market Bottom

Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis Bailouts Sep 22, 2008 - 07:24 PM GMT

By: Paul_J_Nolte

Stock-Markets Trust me, I'm from the government and I'm here to help. In essence, those words are exactly what Treasury Secretary Paulson is saying in laying out the bailout of the banking system. He would have rein over hiring of managers to purchase the debt and be able to do so as needed without oversight from any other part of government. While desperate times require desperate measures, this might be a bit too desperate. The limit on national debt will be raised by nearly $1 trillion and gives the Treasury the authority to buy up to $700 billion in mortgage related assets. While there are few worries if the plan works, the proposal severely hamstrings the government to act on any other issue that may come up and is likely to increase government borrowing over the coming two years from sources that are already up to their eyeballs in our paper.


It is a bold plan with concentration of power and authority in the Treasury that could be fraught with more problems than we have today. Of course, even if passed, the program will not have an immediate impact upon the markets, it will be drawn out over the next 6-12 months. However, if the markets believe this is the solution, we could see some freeing up of the mortgage market sooner, which will help begin turning the economy around and allow some spending by consumers.

Much ado about nothing? From Friday to Friday, the markets moved very little, however they did so in spectacular fashion. For but a brief moment, the markets actually got near buyable ranges only to rocket higher and finish unchanged for the week. Many have commented upon the casino like feel of the markets over the past week, making actual investing a tough proposition. Based upon the late week momentum and very high volume, we can see the markets continuing their skyward trajectory for a few more weeks and tacking on another 3-5%.

However the 1300 level for the SP500 could provide some resistance, as it marks the most recent highs. There are some signs that the bottom is in, however our best guess is that we will once again visit the lows of the past week before yearend, from which the markets could set up for a more meaningful rally as the Paulson plan begins to take hold in the economy and financial institutions. Like stopping by the woods on a snowy evening, the crisis has miles to go before (I) it sleeps.

For a brief moment, the short-term bond market was so awash in buyers that the yields actually fell below zero – meaning you were paying to own short-term treasury paper. With some money market instruments “breaking the buck” and actually trading below the magical $1.00 per share the race was on to load up on the safest of all securities. While not paying anything in yield, it was more important to actually get a return of your money than get a return on your money!

The bond model, even after last week's rollicking trading, still points to lower rates ahead. The Fed took a pass last week and held interest rates stable, even in light of the market turmoil. However, we do believe that before all is said and done, the Fed will have to cut rates sometime before the economy finally turns higher.

By Paul J. Nolte CFA
http://www.hinsdaleassociates.com
mailto:pnolte@hinsdaleassociates.com

Copyright © 2008 Paul J. Nolte - All Rights Reserved.
Paul J Nolte is Director of Investments at Hinsdale Associates of Hinsdale. His qualifications include : Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) , and a Member Investment Analyst Society of Chicago.

Disclaimer - The opinions expressed in the Investment Newsletter are those of the author and are based upon information that is believed to be accurate and reliable, but are opinions and do not constitute a guarantee of present or future financial market conditions.

Paul J. Nolte Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in