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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market ES Sets Up Major Double Bottom Ahead of the Fed

Stock-Markets / Stock Index Trading Dec 19, 2018 - 08:46 AM GMT

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Stock-Markets

The downside price rotation in the US markets on Monday, December 17, set up a near-perfect double bottom formation near the 2530 price level and also prompted a dramatic price recovery after reaching these lows.  Currently, the ES has rallied over 35 pts from this low level and will likely pause before the Fed minutes are announced on Wednesday, December 19.

If the Fed holds true to their earlier promises of continued rate increases, we could see this 2530 level broken as price retreats from any relief rally and attempts to find lower support.  If the Fed changes the context of their message and adopts a slower and more insightful rate policy, the markets are poised for one heck of a potential rally.  The ES if down by a little more than 400 points (-13.75%) from the peak in September 2018.


We believe the markets have already priced in the expected Fed rate hike and we believe an additional rate hike could become a catalyst for a downside move towards 2300 if the 2530 level is breached.  We would like to see the Fed pause, or even decrease rate levels by 25 bp, allowing the markets to parse through the credit/debt issues that have started to plague the global markets before it causes the markets to “turn turtle” and prompt a greater crisis event.

Some of our earlier research, from 2013~2014, was a modeling system dedicated to the Fed interest rates, GDP, Population and Asset Valuations.  We modeled various outcomes of the global economy over the future 15 to 20 years including massive debt increases, massive debt decreases, slowing GDP, growing GDP, massive changes in population and asset levels and many others.  Overall, our research showed that the 2% Fed Funds Rate level should have been an upper boundary and should have been a near-term target back in 2015~2016.  As or right now, the Fed should be decreasing rates to allow for a smooth transition through a “deleveraging process”.

The Fed is behind the curve and is failing to properly navigate the future outcomes of global assets, debt and credit cycles.  If the US Fed is not cautious over the next 12+ months with how they manage the FFR, they could push the entire global economy over a cliff faster than they can spell “Powell”.

Everything rests on Wednesday, December 19 and the US Fed at this point.  Our predictive modeling systems are still suggesting we should see strong upside price activity throughout the end of this year and early next year – assuming the Fed does not pull the floor out from under this market and capsize the global credit markets again.

Learn how we can help you find and execute trades for better success.  Our analysis has been well ahead of these market moves for months and we’ve nailed some incredible trades.  Visit www.TheTechnicalTraders.com to learn more.

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen has been involved in the markets since 1997 and is the founder of Technical Traders Ltd. He is an internationally recognized technical analyst, trader, and is the author of the book: 7 Steps to Win With Logic

Through years of research, trading and helping individual traders around the world. He learned that many traders have great trading ideas, but they lack one thing, they struggle to execute trades in a systematic way for consistent results. Chris helps educate traders with a three-hour video course that can change your trading results for the better.

His mission is to help his clients boost their trading performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

He is a regular speaker on HoweStreet.com, and the FinancialSurvivorNetwork radio shows. Chris was also featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, and contributes articles to several leading financial hubs like MarketOracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: Nothing in this report should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities mentioned. Technical Traders Ltd., its owners and the author of this report are not registered broker-dealers or financial advisors. Before investing in any securities, you should consult with your financial advisor and a registered broker-dealer. Never make an investment based solely on what you read in an online or printed report, including this report, especially if the investment involves a small, thinly-traded company that isn’t well known. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report has been paid by Cardiff Energy Corp. In addition, the author owns shares of Cardiff Energy Corp. and would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stock. The information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis but rather as an advertisement. The author’s views and opinions regarding the companies featured in reports are his own views and are based on information that he has researched independently and has received, which the author assumes to be reliable. Technical Traders Ltd. and the author of this report do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any content of this report, nor its fitness for any particular purpose. Lastly, the author does not guarantee that any of the companies mentioned in the reports will perform as expected, and any comparisons made to other companies may not be valid or come into effect.

Chris Vermeulen Archive

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