Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Ethereum EIP 1559 and Raven Coin - 21st Apr 21
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving - 21st Apr 21
World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! - 21st Apr 21
DogeCoin CRASH! Time to Start Mining BOODGIE Coin! Crypto Mania 2021 - 21st Apr 21
Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks - 21st Apr 21
Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 - 21st Apr 21
Looking For A Mortgage Broker? Here Is How To Hire One - 21st Apr 21
Amazon AMZN Stock PRIMEDAY SALE! Trend Analysis - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Phase Two Projection - 20th Apr 21
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? - 20th Apr 21
Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… - 20th Apr 21
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Sayonora to Gold Stocks - As money flows into Gold ETFS and Funds instead of Gold Stocks

Commodities / Metals & Mining Mar 28, 2007 - 12:31 PM GMT

By: Michael_K_Dawson

Commodities

I have sold at the bottom far more times than I care to admit.  However, if this is another occasion so be it - Sayonara, Au Revoir, Adios Gold stocks.

I purchased my first gold stock, Royal Gold, in May of 2002.  At the time, I really didn't know much about gold or gold stocks and had no idea that it was the beginning of a bull market in gold.  Royal Gold met the criteria of a screen that I was using at the time and it simply was one of many stocks that popped out.  The trade didn't work as I had hoped.  After a quick 20% haircut, I sold it three weeks later.  This didn't discourage me.  As I read more about gold, I realized that something special was in the makings.

The first part of 2003 wasn't much better.  I had more losses with Glamis Gold, Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) and Anglogold (AU).  However, around mid year my fortunes changed for the better.  The winners started coming 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 250%.  Yes, I turned a 250% profit on a trade of Golden Star Resources (GSS).  Needless to say, I was hooked at that point.


The beauty of Gold stocks is that they are leveraged to the price of gold.  Since a significant part of a gold mining company's expenses are fixed, their profits increase substantially as the price of gold increases.  Therefore, your profit potential is much greater than investing directly in bullion.  Obviously, there is no free lunch.  By purchasing the stock instead of the bullion, you are taking on company specific risk such labor disputes, environmental and political issues as well as just plain poor management. 

The graph below illustrates the relative performance of Gold stocks, as represented by the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU), versus Gold bullion.

gold-v-xau.jpg

In this graph Gold is held constant, while and the relative performance of the XAU is illustrated.  As you can see, Gold stocks consistently outperformed Gold from 2002-2004 except for a few brief periods.

The next graph captures the same relationship from 2005 to date.

gold-v-xau-2.jpg

Since 2005, Gold Stocks have spent quite a bit of time underperforming Gold.  Also all of its peaks are lower than the ones from 2002-2004.  What happened?  Why have Gold Stocks lost their luster?

On November, 18 2004 the Gold bullion ETF (GLD) was launched.  I remember the excitement amongst the gold community - thinking that GLD would bring incremental buying from the mainstream since it was only a mouse click away.  However, immediately after the launch Gold stocks started selling off. 

Before GLD, the only way for many institutional fund managers to participate in Gold market was through mining stocks.  Most were prohibited from directly purchasing bullion.  I believe that many institutions no longer saw a need to hold a proxy for Gold when it could hold the actual commodity through GLD.  Why deal with the company specific risk? The loss of institutional ownership, I believe, is one of the primary reasons that Gold Stocks have lost much of its leverage to gold.

Losing its leverage is one thing, but out-right underperformance is something completely different.  I have heard all kinds of reasons.  The most common one is that Gold mining company's input costs have increased much faster than the price of gold.  That may be true, but oil is not the culprit.  From 2002-2004, oil increased an average of 33% annually versus 22% from 2005-to date. 

At this point, I don't know what the cause is for gold stocks underperformance and I really don't care.  What's the point of owning the stocks – if they can't outperform bullion?  Anyway, we are in the midst of a gold bull market – not necessarily a gold stock bull market.  So, why not do like the institutions and dump the Gold stocks for GLD? 

A better alternative to GLD may be the Central Fund of Canada (CEF). 

“Central Fund invests in gold and silver bullion and does not speculate with regard to short-term changes in gold and silver prices. As of October 31, 2005, on a physical basis, 50 ounces of silver were held for each ounce of gold held. During such time, Central Fund's net assets at market value of approximately $541 million consisted of 53.9% gold bullion and certificates, 44.5% silver bullion and certificates, and 1.6% cash, marketable securities and other working capital amounts.”

Let's take a look at CEF's performance versus gold and gold stocks.
gold-v-xau-3.jpg

The silver component in CEF provides the leverage that attracted me to the Gold Stocks without any of the company specific risks.  I have written on numerous occasions that I think CEF is the best way for the average investor to leverage the gold bull market.  Simple dollar cost average will generate outstanding returns.

Sayonara Gold stocks may be a little too harsh.  More than likely I will always trade a few gold stocks.  I enjoy speculating and the potential gains gives me something to talk about at parties. However, as an individual investor my bandwidth is limited. So, I have decided that the bulk of my money allocated for gold stocks will be vectored to CEF.  By employing

By Michael K Dawson
http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com/

Copyright © 2007 Michael K Dawson
Michael K Dawson founded the Time and Money Group with the aim of educating and sharing 20 years of experience on how to reach financial freedom. "Financial Freedom is freedom to focus on what is truly important to you and your family without having to trade time for a wage. It is enabled by a portfolio of income producing assets, managed by you, which generates sufficient income to cover your yearly expenses on an ongoing basis. It provides both time and money". The intent of his website is to become a repository of information to put you on the fast track to becoming financially free. For further infromation visit http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com/


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules