US Economic Fundamentals and the Stock Market

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This is part 7 of my stock market in-depth analysis that concludes in a detailed trend forecast which takes a quick look at US economic fundamentals.

• Part 1 - Trumponomics Stock Market 2018 - The Manchurian President
• Part 2 - The Inflationary Exponential Stocks Bull Market
• Part 3 - Dow Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis
• Part 4 - Stock Market Trend and Volatility Analysis
• Part 5 - Yield Curve Inversion and the Stock Market
• Part 6 - Stock Market US Presidential Cycle and Seasonal Analysis

The whole of this analysis that includes my detailed trend forecast was first made available to Patrons who support my analysis. To get immediate First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

FUNDAMENTALS

US Economy

The US economic fundamentals are good, as real GDP is rising at an annualised rate of 2%, whilst not a boom is definitely not deflationary so supportive for stock prices, as the economy continues to chug along whilst the Fed raises interest rates.

A stable strong economy can further be seen in the unemployment statistics of just 4% with a continually rising record number of americans in work at 148 million, up 18 million from the 130 million trough in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Whilst inflation is significantly above the Feds 2% target at 2.9% hence the Fed's rate hiking cycle. However inflation tends to be good for the stock market. This also makes me wonder what the deflationistas are smoking with their perma mantra for an always imminent deflationary collapse. There is NO deflation! Nor will there ever be (apart from the rare blips such as November 2008).

So the fundamentals are supportive of rising stock prices.

Next > Stock Market Trend Forecast 2018

The final part (8) of this analysis which concludes in a detailed trend forecast will be published shortly. However my core analysis and detailed trend forecasts were first made available to Patrons who support my work. To get immediate and First Access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for as little as just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat

Your analyst,

Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2018 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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