Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How High Will The Market Rally Before The Economic Collapse Begins?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2018 Aug 02, 2018 - 10:33 AM GMT

By: Avi_Gilburt

Stock-Markets

Last week, I wrote an article about how I view the potential effects of an economic collapse on American society. Unfortunately, many of our readers took it as an opportunity to post their perspectives on Trump and the democrats.

Yes, I know the country is exceptionally divided. However, I brought this issue to light not because I see one party as being the savior for this country over the other. Rather, I brought this issue to light to show you that we are on a path of history repeating itself, as we have forgotten the lessons learned from the pain of the past.


We all have to recognize that the United States took a big step down that slippery slope of socialism with the passage of The New Deal. Since then, it does not matter which party has been in power, as we have extended those socialistic policies when the masses thought it was “needed.” Thus, each generation since The New Deal has seen expanding socialistic policies. While you can argue whether you approve or disapprove of this progression, to ignore that we are on this path is foolish.

Moreover, the reaction to the financial market shock experienced during the Great Recession has shown us that our government is willing to go further down the path of socialistic policies. So, I really do not have much doubt in my mind that this will be the go-to answer when we get into bigger trouble in the 2030’s no matter who is in power.

But, I digress. The main point of this update is a follow up on my last article to explain the potential that the market still has overhead before we top out in the coming years.

As you have seen from our very long-term perspective in this chart, which covers over 100 years of time, we still think there is upside left in this market in the coming years. However, before we are going to set up for that final run in the early 2020’s, I still think we will see a 20-30% correction begin in 2019.

But, once that 20-30% correction completes, our expectation is that the DOW can reach at least 35,000 on the rally into the mid-2020’s, with a potential blow off top taking us as high as the 66,000 region. In fact, the 66,000 region is the ideal target on the larger degree structure.

While that is quite a large range, much will depend on how that rally takes shape after we complete the expected 20-30% correction. So, it is a bit premature to be able to hone in on the exact target region upon which to focus. But, as noted, our minimal expectation at this time is the 35,000 region, whereas the ideal target has been 66,000.

So, as you can see, based upon our analysis which has kept us on the correct side of this market for many years, we still believe that this bull market has further to run. However, we are expecting a sizeable correction to begin in 2019 before that last leg of this bull market which began at the 2009 lows takes hold. And, after this last leg into the mid-2020’s completes, then we will likely begin a 10-20 year bear market which can take the DOW back towards the 10,000 region.

See expandable chart on the Dow.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

© 2018 Copyright Avi Gilburt - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in