Labour Local Elections Landslide, Are Opinion Pollsters & Pundits Wrong Again? Sheffield Trees Case
ElectionOracle / UK Local Elections Apr 30, 2018 - 09:02 AM GMTThe mainstream press backed up by the polling industry has once more built themselves up in a frenzy of reporting with much certainty that the Conservatives are heading for a blood bath in the local elections, with the epicentre London ripping out across the regions as Corbyn is NOW expected to build on his shock General Election result of last year that crippled Theresa May's government. All whilst forgetting that the same pollsters and pundits got last years general election very, very badly wrong! And so one has to beg the question are they wrong AGAIN, likely for the FIFTH TIME IN ROW!
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Here's a reminder of just how badly wrong the pollsters, pundits, mainstream media and bookies have been in terms of forecasting the outcome of recent elections.
UK General Election Final Forecasts
Forecasts | Date | Tory | Labour | Lib | SNP |
Lord Ashcroft | 6th June | 357 |
|||
Electoral Calculus .co.uk | 6th June | 361 |
216 |
3 |
48 |
Election Forecast .co.uk | 6th June | 375 |
198 |
8 |
36 |
Forecastuk.org.uk | 6th June | 350 |
225 |
8 |
44 |
Spread Betting Markets (IG) | 7th June | 371 |
199 |
12 |
46 |
* YouGov - Forecast 1 (Hung) | 7th June | 302 |
269 |
3 |
48 |
*YouGov - Forecast 2 (Con Maj) | 8th June | 362 |
|||
Nadeem Walayat - Forecast Conclusion | 4th June | 358 |
212 |
12 |
46 |
Nadeem Walayat - House Prices | 3rd June | 342 |
|||
BBC Exit Poll - 10pm | 8th June | 314 |
266 |
14 |
34 |
BBC Exit Poll - Revised 2.15am | 9th June | 322 |
261 |
13 |
32 |
Actual Result | 9th June | 318 |
262 |
12 |
35 |
*YouGov forecast
Note - Yougov in attempts to cover themselves against being wrong again published two opposite outcomes so that they could claim to have called the election correctly whatever the result! What a joke!
So that brings us to this years Labour landslide local elections. Firstly, it is beyond the capability of the Market Oracle to traipse around the country trying to figure out what is going on at the local level across Britain's 50 largest cities. Nevertheless, we have been able to intensely follow what is happening in Britain's fifth largest city, Sheffield. Which contrary to the propaganda being regurgitated at length across the mainstream media, an analysis of which points to an outcome in the exact opposite direction i.e. implying LABOUR is likely to LOSE seats rather than GAIN seats! Which if similar applies to most other areas of Britain then the pollsters, political pundits and pseudo analysts (journalists) are about to get another election very badly wrong.
Here's, why Sheffield and likely many other major cities are going to result in an election outcome that is the OPPOSITE of the consensus view. As Sheffield could see it's ruling Labour regime lose it's strong majority of 28 to result in an hung council, where one of the key issues here is that the Labour run council decided that Europe's greenest city would be better off with half the number of street trees and so began a crazy felling programme that came to a head in March 2018 that witnessed multiple arrests on a daily basis of peaceful protestors as the Labour council attempted and failed to bully Sheffield's anti tree felling protestors into submission, and similar patterns are likely across Britain's council for differing issues as my following video illustrates:
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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