Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG, rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, that's a 12% gain in less than 1 month!

Here is my latest updated expectations for the crude oil price for 2018:

TEXT VERSION:

Whilst here is a reminder of my opening expectations and forecast for the Crude oil price for 2018, which was for a bullish trend towards a target high of $80.

01 Jan 2018 - Crude Oil Achieves $60 Forecast Expectations for 2017, $80 Next?

Oil is clearly in a bull market and thus I expect the bullish trend to continue and would not be surprised if we see crude oil break above $80 during the year!

So given January's stellar bull run the oil price was running way ahead of expectations i.e. at this rate it would achieve its target for 2018 before the end of March. Of course that was not going to happen as virtually ALL markets simultaneously fell in the great correction of February 2018 which was triggered by the Fed deciding to burst the US bond market bubble, resulting in yields soaring on US treasury bonds and rippling out across all of the market, and so the crude oil price fell hard, wiping out ALL of its gains of 2018.

The oil price fell from a high of $67 to a low of $58 which whilst a deep near 15% retracement, nevertheless in my opinion did not amount to having to revise my $80 target for the crude oil price, not just yet anyway.

And that brings us to the present, where the oil price inline with other markets such as stocks, has recovered strongly to $64. That's a very strong 10% rise in less than 2 weeks, in fact the upwards velocity is virtually on par with the earlier price plunge which suggests that the oil market price gyrations are definitely falling prey to external market volatility such as that of US bonds and stocks which means whilst the oil price target for 2018 remains at $80. However the ride to that destination is likely to be very bumpy as February illustrates.

Current Technical Picture

MACD has turned bullish from a low base which suggests that the rally should continue.

RESISTANCE is at the previous bull market high of $67 that the oil price should experience some difficulty clearing.

SUPPORT is in the area $58 to $60, that should contain any reaction lower from failure at the $67 high.

TREND CHANNELS clearly illustrate that the oil price rally got a little carried away in January, hence the correction. However they also suggest that the immediate upside appears limited, again supportive of being within a trading range.

ELLIOT WAVE - Suggests that the oil price is currently in a corrective B wave rally and thus likely to result in a C wave decline back towards the $58 low and perhaps a little lower.

CONCLUSION

Therefore the crude oil price appears likely to remain within a trading range for the next month or so with-in the high of $67 and a low of $58. Thus given that the oil price is currently at $64 is near resistant then the oil price should soon reverse lower to target $58 which is likely to be the trend for most of March 2018 before the next assault on the high as my longer term 2018 forecast for a $80 crude oil price remains in tact.

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By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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