Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
What to Do NOW in Case of a Future Banking System Breakdown - 13th Nov 19
Why China is likely to remain the ‘world’s factory’ for some time to come - 13th Nov 19
Gold Price Breaks Down, Waving Good-bye to the 2019 Rally - 12th Nov 19
Fed Can't See the Bubbles Through the Lather - 12th Nov 19
Double 11 Record Sales Signal Strength of Chinese Consumption - 12th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Oil, Gold and Stocks Investing – Part II - 12th Nov 19
Gold Retest Coming - 12th Nov 19
New Evidence Futures Markets Are Built for Manipulation - 12th Nov 19
Next 5 Year Future Proof Gaming PC Build Spec November 2019 - Ryzen 9 3900x, RTX 2080Ti... - 12th Nov 19
Gold and Silver - The Two Horsemen - 11th Nov 19
Towards a Diverging BRIC Future - 11th Nov 19
Welcome to the Zombie-land Of Stock Market Investing - 11th Nov 19
Illiquidity & Gold And Silver In The End Game - 11th Nov 19
Key Things You Need to Know When Starting a Business - 11th Nov 19
Stock Market Cycles Peaking - 11th Nov 19
Avoid Emotional Investing in Cryptocurrency - 11th Nov 19
Australian Lithium Mines NOT Viable at Current Prices - 10th Nov 19
The 10 Highest Paying Jobs In Oil & Gas - 10th Nov 19
World's Major Gold Miners Target Copper Porphyries - 10th Nov 19
AMAZON NOVEMBER 2019 BARGAIN PRICES - WD My Book 8TB External Drive for £126 - 10th Nov 19
Gold & Silver to Head Dramatically Higher, Mirroring Palladium - 9th Nov 19
How Do YOU Know the Direction of a Market's Larger Trend? - 9th Nov 19
BEST Amazon SMART Scale To Aid Weight Loss for Christmas 2019 - 9th Nov 19
Why Every Investor Should Invest in Water - 8th Nov 19
Wait… Was That a Bullish Silver Reversal? - 8th Nov 19
Gold, Silver and Copper The 3 Metallic Amigos and the Macro Message - 8th Nov 19
Is China locking up Indonesian Nickel? - 8th Nov 19
Where is the Top for Natural Gas? - 7th Nov 19
Why Fractional Shares Don’t Make Sense - 7th Nov 19
The Fed Is Chasing Its Own Tail; It Doesn’t Care What You Think - 7th Nov 19
China’s path from World’s Factory to World Market - 7th Nov 19
Where Is That Confounded Recession? - 7th Nov 19
FREE eBook - The Investment Strategy that could change your future - 7th Nov 19
Is There a Stock Market Breakout Ahead? - 6th Nov 19
These Indicators Aren’t Putting to an Economic Resurgence - 6th Nov 19
Understanding the Different Types of Travel Insurance - 6th Nov 19
The Biggest Gold Story Of 2020 - 6th Nov 19
Best Money Saving FREE Bonfire Night Fire Works Show Sheffield 2019 - 5th Nov 19
Is the Run on the US Dollar Due to Panic or Greed? - 5th Nov 19
Reasons Why Madrid Attracts Young Professionals - 5th Nov 19
Larger Bullish Move in USD/JPY May Just Be Getting Started - 5th Nov 19
Constructive Action in Gold & Silver Stocks - 5th Nov 19
The Boring Industry That Hands +500% Gains - 5th Nov 19
Stock Market Chartology vs Fundamentals - 4th Nov 19
The Fed’s Policy Is Like Swatting Flies with Nuclear Weapons - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market Warning: US Credit Delinquencies To Skyrocket In Q4 - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market Intermediate Topping Process Continues - 4th Nov 19
Stock Market $SPY Expanded Flat, Déjà Vu All Over Again - 4th Nov 19
How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce - 4th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How To Buy Gold For $3 An Ounce

War, Peace and Recession 2018

Politics / GeoPolitics Jan 04, 2018 - 08:35 AM GMT

By: EconMatters

Politics

December and January are usually two busy months for researchers as they release prediction/forecast of the New Year. We are going to briefly discuss two such forecasts here.

Top 5 World War III Crises

The first one is a geopolitical forecast, 5 Places World War III Could Start in 2018, published last month. Now let’s take a quick look at the top five crises that could lead to the greatest conflict in 2018:


  1. North Korea: North Korea is probably the worst foreign-policy and war potential facing the world today. The country has repeatedly conducted missile and nuclear tests over the last decade, and North Korea is showing no inclination to relent under US pressure. The neighboring China is said to secretly support North Korea, while president Trump claims he has a bigger nuke button than Kim Jong-un. The escalating tension means likely war conflict between US (South Korea, possibly Japan) vs. North Korea (and China) destabilizing East Asia.   
  2. Taiwan: With only 99 miles from each other across the Taiwan Strait, China and Taiwan have been blood-feuding for more than 70 years. China on many occasions openly insists on reunification of the two without ruling out the use of force. Partly in response to the increasing Chinese bombers, fighters and military vessels crossing over to the Strait, Taiwan announced it would raise military budget by 2% a year to about $10.7 billion in 2018, while the US seeks to “strengthen US-Taiwan military alliance”. Potential war conflict: Taiwan (and US, possibly Japan) vs. China and could seriously impact the entire Southeast Asia, and US interests. 
  3. Ukraine: Although there’s supposed to be a cease fire in Easter Ukraine, the country is experiencing increasing violence between Kiev and Moscow-supported local militias and possible collapse of the government altogether. Russia's Putin is not shy about taking advantage of the situation with military incursion into Ukraine. Potential war conflict: Europe (and US) vs. Russia  
  4. NATO South: NATO has 29 sovereign countries from Europe and North America in the field of security and defense. However, Turkey, although a member of NATO, has been estranged from the EU and the United State by cozying up to Russia. Turkey is an immensely important country and could affect conflicts in in Syria, Iraq, Iran, the Balkans and the Caucasus, NATO’s Southern Flank.  
  5. The Gulf The Middle East region has long been a hot bed for geopolitical conflicts, and is now laced with Saudi’s renewed resolve in building a diplomatic and military coalition against Iran, and Russia reasserting its position in the region. War has broken out in the Gulf before without dragging the rest of the world into it, but fuse is growing shorter every day.
When China Overtakes the US

Another one was also published last month when Centre for Economics and Business Research in London came out with a forecast that China would overtake US Economy by 2032.


For three decades, the rise of China has been a fundamental growth force in the global economy. China overtook Japan as the 2nd largest economy in the world early 2011. Since then, there are many predictions of when China would surpass US to become the world’s largest economy. Measured by Purchasing Power Parity, IMF already declares China has become the world's largest economy in 2014. Then in 2016, Conference Board estimates that by 2018 China’s contribution to global GDP will surpass that of the US.

As you can see, the timing of the Big China (2014, 2016 and now 2032) got pushed back further and further. This is mostly due to China’s many growing pains, fairly similar to what the US is facing, including high-debt-financed growth (government, companies as well as individuals), real estate market bubbles, infrastructure and the aging demographics.

A Perfect Storm

The juxtaposition of the aforementioned predictions indicates that China has a minimum of two high octane crises close by (North Korea and Taiwan) which could thwart the overtaking of US by 2032. On the other hand, the US could be even worse than China since as the current world leader, the US would have been deeply involved with all five war crises.

Many experts believe the war crisis could be averted via skillful foreign policy and diplomacy leading to new world balance. Unfortunately it does not look like the US could fulfill that role as diplomacy and foreign policy are not the strong suit of the new Trump Administration.

In addition, effective foreign policy and diplomacy is a two-way street from all parties involved. Right now, the world is in a precarious stage where the similar behavior pattern of prominent leaders including Trump, Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong-un, and even Rodrigo Duterte (Philippines president) is forming a perfect storm pointing to increasing chaos, tension and world war III probability.

Both the Second Fiddle?

From that perspective, world war crises seem more imminent which could lead to global recession (although the recession will eventually come from world's central banks incessant QEs even without WW III). With both the US and China marred by war(s) consuming all resources, the question should be when both countries will play the role of second fiddle instead of which one to retain the title of world’s largest economy and super power.

By EconMatters

http://www.econmatters.com/

The theory of quantum mechanics and Einstein’s theory of relativity (E=mc2) have taught us that matter (yin) and energy (yang) are inter-related and interdependent. This interconnectness of all things is the essense of the concept “yin-yang”, and Einstein’s fundamental equation: matter equals energy. The same theories may be applied to equities and commodity markets.

All things within the markets and macro-economy undergo constant change and transformation, and everything is interconnected. That’s why here at Economic Forecasts & Opinions, we focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the markets to help you achieve a great continuum of portfolio yin-yang equilibrium.

That's why, with a team of analysts, we at EconMatters focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the financial markets that matters to your portfolio.

© 2016 Copyright EconMatters - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

EconMatters Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules