Bank of England Keeps UK Interest Rates on Hold for Final Month?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The pressure is building on the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates with immediate effect as the UK economy plunges over the edge of the cliff, taking with it any hopes of a labour election victory. During the weekend Gordon Browns Darling chancellor finally showed signs of cracking-up under the strain of continually toeing Gordon Browns party line of ignoring the financial and economic fundamentals by painting a repetitively rosy picture for the British economy and financial system.

He commented: "Economic times are arguably the worst they've been in 60 years… I think it's going to be more profound and long-lasting than people thought".

All Gordon Brown could respond with was "Et tu brutus" , as his premierships final days fast resemble a shakespearean tragedy.

With the twin forces of surging inflation that has taken the CPI to a shockingly high 4.4%, and the economy in meltdown, the BOE's job is further made difficult by the panicking Brown government adopting inflationary money printing measures which are destined to see UK debt as a % of GDP soar well beyond the 40% golden rule, upwards and onwards to 60% of GDP. The consquences of which have been repeatedly warned in this column over several months that this would eventually have a severe impact on sterling, which has now finally transpired over recent weeks that have witnessed the British Pound fall by more than 11% against the US Dollar. The worst performance for sterling since it was ejected out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) on Black Wednesday in 1992.

My analysis during the summer months has been building towards the next forecast for UK interest rates, however the clear signs of future rate cuts have been growing literally by the week and are now crying out for a near imminent rate cut. Despite this the Bank of England remains paralysed by fear of inflation and thus will not cut rates until it sees that inflation has peaked. In that respect the BOE has the advantage as the bank sees the August inflation report today before the interest rate decision is made whilst the public will have to wait to see the inflation data for another 2 weeks, hence there exists some pssobility of surprise move depending on whether inflation has fallen for August or not.

The UK Is experiencing the perfect storm of DEFLATION as the housing bear market erodes home owner equity by several thousands of pounds every month, and INFLATION in the input and output prices surging to 20 year highs, therefore pushing the economy towards a Stagflationary recession during 2009.

The existing forecast is for UK interest rates to fall from 5.75% back in Aug / Sept 2007 to 4.75% by September 2008, that's today!

The interest rate forecast for the next 12 months will follow early next week, which will be preceded by the UK inflation forecast and followed by the UK housing market forecast for the next 2 years,.

Previous interest rate analysis / forecasts have proved remarkably accurate, and which were contrary to the consensus view at the time of their respective publication.

2008 - UK interest rates to fall to 5% by September 2008 - Aug 07 , Sept 07 (revised to 4.75% - Jan 08 )

2007 - UK Interest rates to peak at 5.75% by September 2007 - Dec 07

One of the driving forces in determining the trend for future interest rates will be the Banks eagerness to stabalise the the housing market and thus the economy. The government has already in a desperate attempt to halt the crash in UK house prices by suspending the 1% stamp duty taxed on house purchases on properties up to a value of £175,000 for a period of 1 year. Other measures included boosting the new homes market by making available five year interest free loan of up to 30% of the value of new builds.

UK house prices for July as reported by the Halifax came in precisely on target for a fall of 1.7% on the month which now brings average house prices down from the August 07 peak by over £20,000 to the current crash in progress level of being down by 8.9%, against the existing forecast as of August 2007 for prices to fall at by an average rate of 7.5% per annum (minimum) from Aug 07 to Aug 09, as per the recent trend forecast into end 2008 as illustrated below.

The UK economy appears to be on track to meet the Market Oracle forecast of GDP growth of 1.2% for 2008, with the economy now more than ever destined to enter a recession by the start of 2009, which crushes many of the economic forecasts made by major institutions that are only now starting to make revisions, especially to overly optimistic forecasts for 2009 GDP growth of as much as 2% which was never destined to happen.

Market Oracle Track Record of Calling Monthly Interest Rate Decisions

Month	Market Oracle Forecast	Actual MPC Decision	Outcome
Sept 08	No Change	Pending
Aug 08	No Change	No Change
July 08	No Change	No Change
Jun 08	No Change	No Change
May 08	No Change	No Change
Apr 08	0.25% Cut	0.25% Cut
Mar 08	No Change	No Change
Feb 08	0.25% Cut	0.25% Cut
Jan 08	No Pre-call	No Change	-
Dec 07	0.25% Cut	0.25% Cut
Nov 07	No Change	No Change
Oct 07	No Change	No Change
Sept 07	No Pre-call	No Change	-
Aug 07	No Change	No Change
Jul 07	0.25% Increase	0.25% Increase
Jun 07	No Change	No Change
May 07	0.25% Increase	0.25% Increase
Apr 07	No Pre-call	No Change	-
Mar 07	No Pre-call	No Change	-
Feb 07	0.25% Increase	No Change
Jan 07	0.25% Increase	0.25% Increase
Dec 06	No Pre-call	No Change	-
Nov 06	0.25% Increase	0.25% Increase
Overall Rate Forecast Accuracy			95%

By Nadeem Walayat
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-08 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 20 years experience of trading, analysing and forecasting the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication. We present in-depth analysis from over 150 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets. Thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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