Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Ethereum EIP 1559 and Raven Coin - 21st Apr 21
Gold, USDX: The Board is Set, the Pieces are Moving - 21st Apr 21
World Economies Need to Find a Lot More COPPER! - 21st Apr 21
DogeCoin CRASH! Time to Start Mining BOODGIE Coin! Crypto Mania 2021 - 21st Apr 21
Pausing Stocks and Gold Fireworks - 21st Apr 21
Precious Metals and Miners Start of New Longer-Term Bullish Trend - P2 - 21st Apr 21
Looking For A Mortgage Broker? Here Is How To Hire One - 21st Apr 21
Amazon AMZN Stock PRIMEDAY SALE! Trend Analysis - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: You May Not Believe My 2021 Targets - 20th Apr 21
Stock Market Phase Two Projection - 20th Apr 21
Are Precious Metals & Miners Starting A New Longer-Term Bullish Trend? - 20th Apr 21
Inflation: First the Gain, Then the Pain… - 20th Apr 21
8 Stock Market Indicators in 1: Here's the Message of the Panic/Euphoria Model - 19th Apr 21
Gold - You Can Win a Battle, but Still Lose the War - 19th Apr 21
Will Interest Rates Rally Further Push Gold Price Down? - 19th Apr 21
Gold Fireworks Doubt the Official Inflation Story - 19th Apr 21
YuanPay Team Discuss The Process Of Crypto Diversification - 19th Apr 21
Central Banks May Ramp Up Gold Buying - 18th Apr 21
How to Get Rid of Driveway Weeds With Just WATER! 6 Months later NO Weeds, Ultimate Killer! - 18th Apr 21
State of the European Markets - DAX, FTSE, CAC, AEX, SMI, IBEX 35, S&P/MIB, Euro Stoxx 50, RTS - 18th Apr 21
Einvestment Fund: What You Need To Know About Investments - 18th Apr 21
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

XME Miners/Metals ETF Pushing Towards Significant Breakout

Commodities / Metals & Mining Oct 26, 2017 - 10:41 AM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff


The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) could be on the verge of a surprising, very powerful upside breakout after completing a 6-month corrective accumulation period.

After Trump was elected last November, the XME climbed from just under 25 to a February 2017 high at 35.21, or a whopping 41%, in anticipation of the enactment of the Trump agenda, concurrent with lower taxes, stronger economic growth, and upward pressure on inflation.

Thereafter, however, in reaction to the Administration's failure to pass health care legislation, coupled with a myriad of disappointments and political fumbles, prospects for "The Trump Trade" faded miserably.

All through the disappointment period, despite numerous downside violations of its 200-day moving average (DMA), the XME managed to find support between 30 and 28. During the last major downside breach of the 200 DMA in early August in the vicinity of 30.60, the XME bears had another opportunity (the fifth since late April) to inflict very serious technical damage to the developing corrective accumulation pattern. However, they failed to do so.

In its totality, all of the action since early March 2017 has chiseled out a rounded, "cup and handle"-type accumulation formation that is putting increasing upward pressure on resistance lodged between 32.65 and 33.43. If hurdled and sustained, this will trigger powerful upside technical potential that projects to 36+.

We added the XME to our MPTrader Model Portfolio on September 29 at 32.29. Last week, after early weakness in sympathy with the overall pressure on the major indices Thursday morning, the XME put in a key upside reversal day, and then followed through by gapping up Friday morning and closing strong at 33.15.

The 2-day upside thrust, which pivoted off the rising 20 DMA (32.49) as well as off nearest trendline support from the Sep 22 low (31.38), likely derived strength from the steel sector after the STLD upgrade to Overweight from Sector Weight, and a $44 price target (from $38) by KeyBanc last Thursday (10/19/17). In addition, Steel Dynamics management made positive comments after its recent earnings report (10/18/17) that the U.S. steel market has bottomed, and they are largely positive about the near term steel pricing. Although foreign dumping of steel and other industrial metals continues to be problematic for certain producers, it is on the radar of the Trump Administration, which continues to work towards leveling the playing field against foreign competitors who receive support from illegal subsidies.

With this latest move, XME is attempting to hurdle its 8-month resistance line, which cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 33.20. This is the third attempt to take out the resistance line since Sep 9. Given the juxtaposition of the rising momentum indicators, a significant breakout from the larger rounded accumulation pattern likely is already in motion.

From an event-driven perspective, earnings in NUE, X, MT, FCX, ATI, CNX are due out within the next two weeks, and should provide the XME will some event-driven directional catalysts. From a market-psychology perspective, my sense is that such a move will be directly related to renewed prospects for the Trump Growth Agenda (tax cuts, tax reform), and hence, the resumption of "The Trump Trade" that propels the cyclical and industrial names to the upside (industrial miners and manufacturers included).

See chart illustrating the technicals on XME.

Mike Paulenoff is a veteran technical strategist and financial author, and host of, a live trading room of his market analysis and stock trading alerts.

Sign Up for a Free 15-Day Trial to Mike's Live Trading Room!

© 2002-2017, an AdviceTrade publication.  All rights reserved. Any publication, distribution, retransmission or reproduction of information or data contained on this Web site without written consent from MPTrader is prohibited. See our disclaimer.

Mike Paulenoff Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules