Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

A Catalyst of the Stock Market Bubble Bust

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Oct 21, 2017 - 12:39 PM GMT

By: Harry_Dent

Stock-Markets Brexit. Markets up.

Shock election of President Trump. Markets up.

Drum beats of war with North Korea. Markets up.

Hurricanes Irma and Maria. Markets up.

Wild fire incinerating Northern California. Markets up.


There is nothing – nothing – rational about the Dow breaching 23,000 yesterday. Yet it did. (And in short order it’ll come up against a resistance level, which I’ll tell you about in a few moments.)

But then that’s the nature of bubbles.

And that’s what makes them so hard to predict.

They go up, and up, and up, and up, and up… until one day they reverse. It takes just one spark to ignite the gas. One thorn to pierce the flimsy exterior of irrational exuberance. Just one grain of sand to trigger the avalanche.

But identifying that one grain of sand before time is impossible.

That doesn’t mean the bubble won’t burst. It will implode – not gently correct – and all those holdouts for that extra 2% or 5% will have their asses handed to them because when it all goes belly up, there’s no getting out in time to avoid significant damage. Closing the barn door after the horses have bolted is useless!

That’s why we hold our Irrational Economic Summit every year. To highlight the extreme irrationalities of our investing world right now. To provide updates on forecasts, mine in particular, and to help attendees find the best opportunities that don’t put them in harm’s way for a couple of percent gains (and there are dozens of these opportunities).

This year’s conference in Nashville, Tennessee was incredible, and we lived up to our promises. We had a diverse range of speakers that kept attendees and experts engaged. For me though, two things stood out the most…

The first was Michael Terpin, who talked to us about Bitcoin and blockchain technologies. He’s been involved in cryptocurrencies since the beginning, when Bitcoin was 1/10 of a cent. Now it’s near $6,000. It went up $400 on the day he spoke. It was up another $600 the next day. Crazy stuff.

The second was a conversation I had with another of our guest speakers who was a Marine for a while. In the lobby of the Nashville Airport Marriott conference center, he asked: “Did you guys know that three stealth bombers just took off from the Nashville airport, heading west?”

Of course we didn’t! It wasn’t reported in any media we follow (and we haven’t seen or heard anything about it from the ever trustworthy, impartial media – note the sarcasm).

Turns out, The Donald might just do what he says and strike North Korea (not a nuke, but still a strike)! And that might well trigger the crash that’s coming.

Hearing Andrew’s news made me glad I’d re-issued the warning I had on the first day of the conference. During my presentation, I talked about the greatest political and economic revolution since democracy itself… a revolution we’re currently living the early years of.

I also reviewed my four fundamentals, which still all point down together into early 2020.

That’s the danger period for the market, between now and early 2020.

That’s when there’s the highest chance of the major stock crash that I’ve been predicting… where we could see the Dow sink to 5,500.

All it takes is a missile strike on North Korea… or a real-estate crash in China… or a major default in Italy…

Any one grain of sand!

As I mentioned earlier, the Dow broke through 23,000 yesterday, despite seemingly endless bad news. The question now is: how much higher can it go? The answer? The market’s irrational. There’s no telling. But I do have a guide…

I shared this chart with attendees at the Summit last week. It shows a rising bearish wedge. The top of that wedge is currently 23,200.

If stocks can’t break through that resistance level, we could see them drop back to 22,000. If they break below that, it would suggest we’re breaking down out of that wedge and that increases the chances that we’re seeing a top here. If, however, the Dow breaks above the top trend line, that’s a bullish sign.

The other thing I warned about in my presentation last Thursday is the problem I alluded to earlier: once the bubble bursts, we’re likely to see a 41% crash in 2.6 months. Here’s a chart of all major bubble crashes over the last century. See for yourself…

Naturally, with markets at all-time highs (and breaking records daily), there were a lot of questions after my presentation about why my forecast hasn’t come to fruition yet.

Am I just plain wrong?

What’s the hold up?

My answer to that is, part of the problem is that bubbly markets are irrational (as I elaborated on above). They’ll go up until they’ve suckered every last person in and then, when no one expects it, the wheels come off the bus.

The other problem is that central banks the world over have engineered things so that there is literally nowhere else for investors to go but into the stock markets. Interest rates are near zero, bond yields are near zero. Desperate, soon-to-retire Baby Boomers need to do something to survive their golden years. Corporations need somewhere better to put their cash.

And so the markets go up.

Yet I remain firm on my prediction that we’ll see a massive – historical – market crash ahead.

Fundamentals haven’t changed.

Nothing substantial has changed.

And bubbles go until they blow.

Sadly, the media is sick of hearing this story from me – even if it remains true. So, they’ve blackballed me. I don’t get calls for interviews nearly as often. People just don’t want to hear it. They’re in heaven, and that’s where they want to stay. They don’t want to see the hell that’s steadily creeping up on them.

That’s why I’ve decided to circumvent the mainstream media and give you the opportunity to hear for yourself why I’m standing by my forecast for a major market downturn.

I’m finalizing a special video presentation that’ll broadcast next Wednesday, October 25th at 4 p.m. EST. It’s available exclusively to Dent Research readers and it’s free to attend. All I ask is that you register here to watch it and that you don’t miss it!



Like I said: I don’t know what grain of sand will cause the avalanche, or when that grain will fall. But I remain adamant that the avalanche is inevitable.

Now, more than ever, be careful in the markets.

Harry

http://economyandmarkets.com

Follow me on Twitter @HarryDentjr

Harry studied economics in college in the ’70s, but found it vague and inconclusive. He became so disillusioned by the state of the profession that he turned his back on it. Instead, he threw himself into the burgeoning New Science of Finance, which married economic research and market research and encompassed identifying and studying demographic trends, business cycles, consumers’ purchasing power and many, many other trends that empowered him to forecast economic and market changes.

Copyright © 2017 Harry Dent- All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Harry Dent Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in