I'm going to be brief here. For those who have been celebrating dollar rally, don't get too excited because it's only a standard retracement, much like the U.S. stock market has experienced since reaching lows a few weeks ago. Of course the market has a long way to go down as well.

I would imagine the smart money is using the now overbought levels in the dollar to set up short positions. Make no mistake about it - the real dollar crisis is coming and it's going to blow past previous lows. When, I cannot say. But it is coming. You can bet on it. So if you are aware WHAT will happen, you will be better positioned to spot it WHEN the signs materialize. If you want more evidence of these forecasts I suggest you check my archives, as it's senseless to keep repeating myself.

As for oil and gold, you would be best to reload from here, as both are certain to make new highs over the next year or so. Remember, the best approach is to trade these asset classes rather than hold them. The only exception would be the Canadian oil trusts. Holding gold is a sucker play. I hope by now you can appreciate this. If you want to invest in oil and gold you better be able to utilize their tremendous volatility. Otherwise, my best advice for you is to stay out of the market.

Finally, separate yourself from the noise and listen to those who have the best track record; not just people with comments or observations but seasoned pros who come forward and make solid forecasts - forecasts that help you avoid losses and make money. Not amateurs either, but those who have managed assets professionally. If your sources cannot do this they should be viewed as trash. And of course, turn off the TV. If you watch CNBC and other shows covering the markets and economy, you will be led into the slaughterhouse along with the rest of the sheep. This is not an opinion. It is a fact documented by historical evidence.

By Mike Stathis
http://www.apexvc.com

Mike Stathis is the Managing Principal of Apex Venture Advisors , a business and investment intelligence firm serving the needs of venture firms, corporations and hedge funds on a variety of projects. Mike's work in the private markets includes valuation analysis, deal structuring, and business strategy. In the public markets he has assisted hedge funds with investment strategy, valuation analysis, market forecasting, risk management, and distressed securities analysis. Prior to Apex Advisors, Mike worked at UBS and Bear Stearns, focusing on asset management and merchant banking.

The accuracy of his predictions and insights detailed in the 2006 release of America's Financial Apocalypse and Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble have positioned him as one of America's most insightful and creative financial minds. These books serve as proof that he remains well ahead of the curve, as he continues to position his clients with a unique competitive advantage. His first book, The Startup Company Bible for Entrepreneurs has become required reading for high-tech entrepreneurs, and is used in several business schools as a required text for completion of the MBA program.

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Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Mike Stathis Archive

Comments

Martin
02 Sep 08, 03:41

US Dollar

Hi,

Since posting this, the dollar has surged against the pound. Has your opinion changed? I am debating whether to by dollars now ahead of a five week visit in April, May, June next year.

Norman
03 Sep 08, 01:20

Dollar update?

Yes I too would be interested in an update..It appears at this stage that the pound is going to hell, not the US dollar..

Mike Stathis
15 Oct 08, 01:12

US Dollar

I think the confusion might be in me not clarifying my time frame. My forecasts for the dollar are NOT short-term. They are longer term. I am going by the LT trend. The recent rise in the dollar is only as a safe haven relative to global currencies now that the global meltdown is evident. This analysis is similar (but opposite) to gold and oil, both which still have LT bullish trends.

Understand that the dollar's recent strength is only due to a safety measure so it will be temporary in my view. I am still convinced that the real dollar crisis is ahead. This should be especially evident given the trillions of dollars handed out to the banking system.

Of course, I might be wrong, as LT forecasting is extremely difficult. But if you believe gold will eventually break $2000 and oil $160, then surly you believe the dollar will ultimately make new lows?

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