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Trading Lessons

UK House Prices the Most Accurate General Election Forecast Predictor

ElectionOracle / UK Housing Jul 07, 2017 - 01:28 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

UK house prices wealth effect once more proved to be the MOST accurate forecaster for the outcome of UK general elections i.e. April house prices data implied 342 Tory seats, which far more reliable when compared to the a range of forecast expectations primarily by pollster based analysts that extended 375 seats just prior to polling day.


UK House prices analysis based on April data:

UK House Prices Forecast General Election 2017 Seats Result, for 2015 was 328

Whilst house prices data for May released on the 7th June implied just 334 Tory seats! By far the most accurate predictor. So house prices's analysis should be tasked as being of primary importance ahead of ALL other analysis. Therefore getting an accurate gauge of house prices trend and momentum going into polling day is the key towards arriving at an accurate election forecast conclusion, everything else should be secondary.

See the following video for 9 key forecasting lessons learned for the NEXT UK general election :

https://youtu.be/qL2sTLpeCGI (20 mins)

And do subscribe to our youtube and free newsletter for my forthcoming in-depth analysis and financial markets trend forecasts as hopefully we won't need to worry about another general election for at least a year.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2018 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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