Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

This Is The Most Profound Shift The US Economy Has Ever Seen

Economics / Demographics Jun 08, 2017 - 03:07 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Economics

By Stephen McBride : This year, the first Baby Boomers turned 70, and that spells trouble for the economy and financial markets.

Speaking at Mauldin Economics’ Strategic Investment Conference, chief economist and strategist for Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, dissected the wide-ranging implications of the wave of Baby Boomers now retiring.


Fifty Million Americans Aged Over 70 By 2030

“1.5 million Boomers turn 70 [each year] for the next 15 years. This is a depressant for growth. Research has shown once you hit this age, you cut back on your spending.”

Findings from RAND Corporation show that on average, a person’s consumption drops by 37.5% when they enter retirement. Given that consumption accounts for 70% of US economic activity, this is a major deflationary force.

Rosenberg goes on to say, “what makes this situation more acute is that only half of the Boomers that would like to retire, and this is why they can’t retire, have less than $100,000 in liquidity.”

This huge funding gap in pensions has two major consequences for the economy and financial markets in the near term.

The Booming Bond Market

“Because [Boomers] are living longer and they need the cash flow, they’re staying in the job market longer and displacing younger workers. The fastest employment growth now is people over the age of 65.”


Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

“From a financial markets standpoint, once you hit the age of 65, you go through the most profound asset class shift since you were in your 30s. You start to trim your equity and start to raise your bond exposure.”


Source: Haver Analytics, Gluskin Sheff

Dividends Are King

While cash flow will remain king for Boomers looking to plug pensions deficits, Rosenberg sees one big problem which has huge implications for asset prices going forward: low interest rates.

“The big challenge is, if this [Boomers retiring] was happening 30 years ago, you could go to the government bond market and get 4, 5, 6%. You can’t do that today.”

One consequence of record-low yields on US Treasuries is that there have been massive inflows into dividend stocks. This in turn has left valuations sky-high. However, Rosenberg thinks money will continue to flow into the “bond proxies.”

“[Low Treasury yields] are why I don’t think the dividend theme is overdone. The equity market has become a more reliable generator of the reoccurring cash flows that the Boomers need than the government bond market has.”

Which Trends Should Investors Focus on Today?

For David Rosenberg’s thoughts on the deflationary headwinds facing the US economy, Federal Reserve policy, and more, watch the full interview below.

Download a FREE Bundle of Exclusive Content from the Sold-Out 2017 Strategic Investment Conference

Get access to exclusive interviews with John Mauldin, Neil Howe and Pippa Malmgren from SIC, an ebook from renowned geopolitical expert George Friedman and bonus SIC 2017 content…

Claim your SIC 2017 bundle now!

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in