Tory Landslide, Labour Bloodbath - Will Opinion Pollsters Finally Get a UK Election Right?
ElectionOracle / UK General Election May 17, 2017 - 10:12 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
As Britain counts down to voting in the general election on June 8th 2017, the opinion pollsters who have badly gotten virtually every major election wrong for at least the past 5 years have been busy putting up a propaganda smoke screen across the mainstream media from the BBC's Newsnight to the broadsheets, peddling propaganda of margins of error and how they were only out by 2-4%. Whilst deliberately forgetting that the margin of error meant the difference between getting the election outcomes RIGHT or VERY BADLY WRONG! Thus making polls commissioned by the mainstream media propaganda machine at the cost of hundreds of millions of pounds WORTHLES! Literally even a coin toss would have proved far more reliable than the opinion polling industry.
For if the pollsters had got it right then Ed Milliband would have won the 2015 General Election, not David Cameron. The Brexit outcome would never have happened in 2016.Whilst Trump would be preparing to star in Season 10 of the Celebratory Apprentice instead of prancing around in the White House turning the United States into a Joke Empire as he attempts to become the Republics first Dictator.
None of which matters to the pollsters that the mainstream media requires to publish reams of propaganda, as the polls always were just a propaganda tool for the media to peddle their wares to the gullible masses. However, even the pollsters usually thick propaganda smoke screen was unable to mask the fact that they suck! And so have been busy making statements that they WILL get it right this time!
Yes, we'll they would have to be really, REALLY stupid to get THIS general election outcome wrong, for one does not need to pay hundreds of millions of pounds on commissioning hundreds of opinion polls to understand that Theresa May WILL WIN this general election. So why are the fools in the mainstream press still paying the clueless opinion pollsters millions of pounds just to tell them what is obvious to even an 8 year old child that Theresa May is going to win?
The Tories have a 17 point polls lead over Labour which means the pollsters error of 2-4% which has been ensuring that they have gotten every election badly wrong over the past 5 years due to skewing the error in favour of those who commission the polls just does not come into play in this general election.
So ahead of my forthcoming general election forecast conclusion, here is an important reminder to study of how and why the opinion pollsters have been so clueless over the past few years which exposes the reality that the polling industry just like economics primarily purpose so to produce convincing propaganda to back up the positions of those who commission the polls.
US Presidential Election November 2016 - Hillary Clinton Would Win
There was no doubt in the minds of the pollsters, pundits and bookies that Hillary Clinton would win the US Presidential election. For instance the New Statesman's print run for the day after the election featured a picture of Madam President Hillary Clinton on its front cover.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Pollster Analysts
The surge in Hillary's FBI political intervention induced polls lead was reflected across the opinion polls based forecasters such as Nate Silvers site which forecast a 71% probability for Hillary winning the election up from 67% earlier, against Trump trailing on just 29%.
http://fivethirtyeight.com
Though Nate's forecast was at the lower end as the likes of the New York Times gave Hillary a 85% probability of winning -
New York Times (8th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%
Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 323, Trump 215 (270 winning post)
http://www.electionprojection.com (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 49.2%, Trump 45.8%
Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).
http://pollyvote.com/ (8th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215
https://www.predictit.org (8th Nov 2016) - Clinton 84c, Trump 20c ($1 winner).
The point is that the pollsters exist within the system, INSIDE the box. However, Trump and BrExit represent what all experienced market analysts and traders understand, a Juncture, a change in Trend. And the key skill that the pollsters, pundits and press ALL lack is 'JUNCTURE RECOGNITION' For this is a phrase that they are NOT even aware of let alone what it means in respect of forecasting election outcomes! I have ridden the crests and troughs of many market waves over the past 30 years, which means I can literally smell and taste emerging junctures, whilst they are never black and white, i.e. there is always a risk of being wrong, nevertheless perception is skewed enough to recognise the probability for JUNCTURES which NEVER happens with the pollsters or mainstream press because they follow systems and journalists are just that JOURNALISTS!
Here's the Trump JUNCTURE RECOGNITION -
EU Referendum June 2016 - Remain Had Won the Referendum
Whilst before Trump there was Britain's BrExit referendum that the pollsters, markets, pundits, the whole of the British establishment elite had convinced themselves could never happen, and so the BBC declared after the polls closed at 10pm that REMAIN had won the referendum, with YouGov's poll stating REMAIN on 52% against LEAVE on 48% which even prompted Nigel Farage to effectively concede defeat at around 10.15pm, sending sterling soaring to its highest level against the dollar for 2016, and also triggering a sharp FTSE stock futures rally, and so it remained until just after midnight when the actual results started coming in and all hell broke loose as the following video illustrates. Watch it, study it, so you UNDERSTAND!
UK General Election May 2015 - Hung Parliament, Labour Coalition Government
The polling establishment and the mainstream media had in unison proclaimed the general election was too close to call, one where the Labour and Conservative parties were neck and neck and where even if the Conservatives managed to pull a a handful of seats ahead would still lose by default as they would not be able to form a majority even with Lib Dem support and therefore the Labour party appeared to be destined to win the 2015 general election, all of which was based on a year of opinion polls that consistently presented this consensus view right up to the polls closed at 10pm!
Instead, the reality proved to be the exact opposite as instead of the Ed Milliband walking into No 10 we had David Cameron texting the removal vans to do an about turn as he raced back to Downing Street before the locks were changed and thus this video seeks to answer why the opinion pollsters got the UK general election 2015 so badly wrong which given that they were contrary to my long-standing expectations for a Conservative win gave me plenty of time to ponder why the polls were consistently wrong.
In fact my market skewed perception had accurately forecast the outcome of the UK General Election a good 18 months earlier!
30 Dec 2013 - UK House Prices Forecast 2014 to 2018, Inflation, Trend Trajectory and General Election 2015
UK General Election Forecast 2015
In terms of the 'fixed' May 2015 general election, the implications of 10% per annum house price inflation for another 18 months, that builds on the housing bull market of the previous 12 months and on the embryonic bull market of 2012 are that probability strongly favours an outright Conservative election victory.
The following graph attempts to fine tune the outcome of the next general election by utilising the more conservative current house prices momentum of 8.5% which has many implications for strategies that political parties may be entertaining to skew the election results in their favour.
In conclusion a May 2015 general election at an average house price inflation rate of 8.5% would result in a Conservative overall majority of at least 30 seats. Therefore this is my minimum expectation as I expect UK house prices to start to average 10% per annum from early 2014 with my actual forecast converging towards average UK house prices breaking to a new all time high just prior to the May 2015 general election which would be a significant boost for housing market sentiment and thus the Conservative's election prospects.
The following video of 6th January 2014 (16 months ago) further illustrates my house prices based UK general election forecast:
Scottish Independence Referendum Sept 2014 - Too close to call - 50/50
The opinion pollsters painted a picture of a too close to call Scottish Independence vote on September 18th 2014 which even saw a 51% to 49% lead for the YES campaign just a few days ahead of voting day that triggered much panic across the political spectrum and financial markets.
However, my earlier in depth analysis concluded that the actual probability for Scotland voting YES was just 30% rather than the near 50/50 proposition that the mainstream press had put itself into a frenzy over:
So here we stand some 3 weeks from the BrExit UK General Election with the pollsters promising that THIS time they WILL get THIS election right. Which they WILL because Theresa May WILL Win on June the 8th given the Tories 17% polls lead.
The only question mark is how large will her majority be, which my forthcoming forecast analysis will seek to conclude. But even there it does not take paying a pollsters millions of pounds to understand that the Conservatives will INCREASE their majority, which carries a probability of over 90%.
So do subscribe to my youtube channel and always free newsletter for that which remains to be determined - by how much will Theresa May increase the Conservative Governments commons majority, and if there exist an opportunities to capitalise from this election! For instance the betting markets whilst getting the main event right may be pointing in several wrong directions where the smaller parties such as the SNP and Lib Dems are concerned.
Stock Market Double Top?
And finally I managed to briefly pull myself away from politics for a quick video update to my last stocks analysis of Mid March, the timing of which could prove opportune for a bearish trend to unfold over the coming months.
Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter and to our youtube channel for forthcoming analysis and forecasts.
By Nadeem Walayat
Copyright © 2005-2017 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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