This Update will provide both a near term and long term update on the USD an where I think it stands in its short and long term cycles. My first two charts are the same near term daily chart. The first provides my cycle counts for the past 6 Trading Cycles. The second shows a potential Blue Fork Channel that should hold it. USD did find a TC low on day 17 last week.

Remember that I am still expecting Gold to find its next Intermediate Cycle Low in the May/June timeframe probably when Gold also finds its Trading Cycle 4 low. Basically I don’t see how Gold can find an ICL with the USD moving lower right now. Therefore I believe the dollar has found a short term low.

Longer term, I do see the USD topping in 2017 for its longer term 15 Year Super Cycle. It may have topped already but, if so, markets almost always have a retest. So my expectations are that we will see at least one more run by the USD that will test the recent highs. My last two charts are longer term weekly versions that show the various support and resistance I am tracking. The first chart shows the Blue uptrend from early 2014 which has been providing critical support since the May 2016 YCL. This line is now being tested quite frequently and the more a line gets tested, the more likely it is to break down, IMO. The last chart show we are near the bottom of my Blue channel but also near the top of the Purple Channel.

The last thing to note on these two weekly charts are the long term divergences on both the RSI and MACD as the USD has moved higher. My last chart shows a fractal pattern of these same divergences at the USD’s last 15 Year Super Cycle top.

By Surf City

https://surfcity.co/

Everything about Cycle Investing

© 2017 Surf City - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.