The problem that I have with zigzags is…at which degree are we viewing it? The zigzag to 2300.99 is a completed one, but at a Minute degree, while Waves 1 through 3 are at a Minor degree. Today’s final surge brings the pattern into agreement. While Wave [a] is larger than [c], a common relationship, Wave [c] is a Fibonacci 61.8% of Wave [a], which is the alternate relationship that we look for.

Today is 17.55 months from the August 24, 2015 low. That is, 10.75 days over 17.2 months. That is a close enough tolerance to suggest that the long-term uptrend may be over.

We will look for a break of the Ending Diagonal trendline and mid-Cycle support at 2274.13 as potential entries. A breakout in the VIX (still in the red as I write) above 11.84 to the 50-day Moving Average at 12.13 as confirmations of a sell signal in SPX.

Regards,

Tony

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