Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. The Trump Stock Market Trap May Be Triggered - Barry_M_Ferguson
2.Why are Central Banks Buying Gold and Dumping Dollars? - Richard_Mills
3.US China War - Thucydides Trap and gold - Richard_Mills
4.Gold Price Trend Forcast to End September 2019 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Money Saving Kids Gardening Growing Giant Sunflowers Summer Fun - Anika_Walayat
6.US Dollar Breakdown Begins, Gold Price to Bolt Higher - Jim_Willie_CB
7.INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing to Profit From AI Machine Learning Boom - Nadeem_Walayat
8.Will Google AI Kill Us? Man vs Machine Intelligence - N_Walayat
9.US Prepares for Currency War with China - Richard_Mills
10.Gold Price Epochal Breakout Will Not Be Negated by a Correction - Clive Maund
Last 7 days
Has Next UK Financial Crisis Just Started? Bank Accounts Being Frozen - 21st July 19
Silver to Continue Lagging Gold, Will Struggle to Overcome $17 - 21st July 19
What’s With all the Weird Weather?  - 21st July 19
Halifax Stopping Customers Withdrawing Funds Online - UK Brexit Banking Crisis Starting? - 21st July 19
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2019 to 2021 - 20th July 19
MICROSOFT Cortana, Azure AI Platform Machine Intelligence Stock Investing Video - 20th July 19
Africa Rising – Population Explosion, Geopolitical and Economic Consquences - 20th July 19
Gold Mining Stocks Q2’19 Results Analysis - 20th July 19
This Is Your Last Chance to Dump Netflix Stock - 19th July 19
Gold and US Stock Mid Term Election and Decade Cycles - 19th July 19
Precious Metals Big Picture, as Silver Gets on its Horse - 19th July 19
This Technology Everyone Laughed Off Is Quietly Changing the World - 19th July 19
Green Tech Stocks To Watch - 19th July 19
Double Top In Transportation and Metals Breakout Are Key Stock Market Topping Signals - 18th July 19
AI Machine Learning PC Custom Build Specs for £2,500 - Scan Computers 3SX - 18th July 19
The Best “Pick-and-Shovel” Play for the Online Grocery Boom - 18th July 19
Is the Stock Market Rally Floating on Thin Air? - 18th July 19
Biotech Stocks With Near Term Catalysts - 18th July 19
SPX Consolidating, GBP and CAD Could be in Focus - 18th July 19
UK House Building and Population Growth Analysis - 17th July 19
Financial Crisis Stocks Bear Market Is Scary Close - 17th July 19
Want to See What's Next for the US Economy? Try This. - 17th July 19
What to do if You Blow the Trading Account - 17th July 19
Bitcoin Is Far Too Risky for Most Investors - 17th July 19
Core Inflation Rises but Fed Is Going to Cut Rates. Will Gold Gain? - 17th July 19
Boost your Trading Results - FREE eBook - 17th July 19
This Needs To Happen Before Silver Really Takes Off - 17th July 19
NASDAQ Should Reach 8031 Before Topping - 17th July 19
US Housing Market Real Terms BUY / SELL Indicator - 16th July 19
Could Trump Really Win the 2020 US Presidential Election? - 16th July 19
Gold Stocks Forming Bullish Consolidation - 16th July 19
Will Fed Easing Turn Out Like 1995 or 2007? - 16th July 19
Red Rock Entertainment Investments: Around the world in a day with Supreme Jets - 16th July 19
Silver Has Already Gone from Weak to Strong Hands - 15th July 19
Top Equity Mutual Funds That Offer Best Returns - 15th July 19
Gold’s Breakout And The US Dollar - 15th July 19
Financial Markets, Iran, U.S. Global Hegemony - 15th July 19
U.S Bond Yields Point to a 40% Rise in SPX - 15th July 19
Corporate Earnings may Surprise the Stock Market – Watch Out! - 15th July 19
Stock Market Interest Rate Cut Prevails - 15th July 19
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Current State July 2019 Video - 15th July 19
Why Summer is the Best Time to be in the Entertainment Industry - 15th July 19
Mid-August Is A Critical Turning Point For US Stocks - 14th July 19
Fed’s Recessionary Indicators and Gold - 14th July 19
The Problem with Keynesian Economics - 14th July 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Top AI Stocks Investing to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend

The Day That Alt-A Mortgages Died

Housing-Market / US Housing Aug 08, 2008 - 02:17 PM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Housing-Market Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBloomberg is reporting Fannie Mae, Battling Losses, to End Alt-A Mortgages .
Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage- finance company, will stop buying or guaranteeing Alt-A home loans, such as those that require little or no documentation of borrower incomes or assets, by yearend.

The company announced the changes when reporting its fourth straight quarterly loss today. The second-quarter net loss of $2.3 billion, or $2.54 a share, included $5.3 billion in credit- related expenses.


"Over 60 percent of our losses have come from a small number of products, but especially Alt-A loans," or ones considered between prime and subprime in terms of expected defaults, the Washington-based company said in a statement.

McLean, Virginia-based Freddie Mac, which reported an $821 million quarterly loss two days ago, said that Alt-A mortgages were the biggest reason for a surge in its foreclosure losses. The delinquency rate for the $190 billion of the loans owned by Freddie Mac or underlying the bonds the company guarantees jumped to 3.7 percent on June 30, from 1.8 percent on Dec. 31.

Fannie Mae Posts Fourth Straight Loss, Cuts Dividend

Freddie Mac missed earnings expectations by a mile and today Fannie Mae reported similar news: Fannie Mae Posts Fourth Straight Loss, Cuts Dividend .

Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage- finance company, cut its dividend 86 percent after posting a loss that was more than three times analysts' estimates and said the worst housing slump since the Great Depression is deepening.

Fannie, which owns or insures about 25 percent of all U.S. mortgages, said credit losses rose 66 percent to $5.3 billion as delinquencies rose. Chief Executive Officer Daniel Mudd forecast a "significant'' increase in reserves for the rest of the year as the housing market deteriorates. Fannie's results, combined with a loss by Freddie Mac that was also wider than analysts anticipated, may boost the need for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's bailout plan announced last month.

The results "increase the probability of the government stepping in," said Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Virginia, who has an "underperform" rating on both companies. "Neither of these companies have properly provisioned for what we're heading into. This thing is going to get worse and last longer and deeper than they originally thought."

The Big Bailout Is Coming

I spoke about Freddie Mac's preposterous claims on expected losses yesterday in Fannie, Freddie Reality Check: The Big Bailout Is Coming .

Chris Whalen On GSEs



"Recognize the economic realities. The GSE's cannot function without the backing of the Treasury. They can't borrow at rates low enough to make their business model work unless the full faith and credit is there. It's Done. It's just a question of when we recognize reality. $80 billion dollars is not enough to back Fannie and Freddie. It should have been $800 billion. This whole thing is like a platypus.... Fannie Mae is nothing but a big fixed income hedge fund, the biggest in the world."

While I agree with most of Whalen's comments about what is happening, I certainly disagree that a bailout of the GSEs is the right solution. Right or wrong, the big bailout is coming, but it will not be $800 billion. The statement above is about capitalization and funding, not about expected losses.

Fannie Mae Conference Call

Calculated Risk posted some interesting comments from Fannie Mae's conference call in Fannie Mae: Q2 Ended in June, but July was Worse . Here are a few of them:

July was a tough month for our credit performance. We experienced higher defaults and higher loan loss severities in the markets that were experiencing the steepest home price declines. And that gave us higher charge-offs than we had experienced in any month in the second quarter, and higher than we had expected.

Home prices have cratered in certain markets since the peak -- Cape Coral, Florida, down 50%; Las Vegas, down 35%; northern Virginia, down 30%; and in California, Modesto, and Stockton, down 50%; Riverside, down 40%. The list goes on. Alt-A foreclosures have doubled in southern California. Our average serious delinquency rate in Florida increased in June to over 3% -- four times the average on our total book of business last year. Almost 2% of the loans in our Florida book are now referred to foreclosure. So, the housing market has returned to earth fast and hard.

Fannie Mae Press Release

The Fannie Mae Press Release was interesting.

ā€œVolatility and disruptions in the capital markets became even more pronounced in July. In addition, credit performance has continued to deteriorate and, based on our experience in July, we anticipate further increases in our combined loss reserves. Given this volatility and the build-up of our reserve, as well as the uncertainties inherent in the U.S. economy and the housing market, we are taking a series of additional actions that reflect our ongoing focus on conserving and enhancing our capital, as well as managing our credit risk through the balance of this cycle.ā€

While we continue to expect home price declines in 2008 to be within our estimated 7 to 9 percent range, and peak-to-trough home price declines to be within our estimated 15 to 19 percent range, we see the trend moving toward the high end of those ranges, driven in particular by higher home price declines in certain regions. We are increasing our forecast for our credit loss ratio for the full-year to 23 to 26 basis points, as compared to our previous guidance of 13 to 17 basis points. We continue to anticipate that our credit loss ratio will increase further in 2009 compared with 2008. We also expect significant additions to our combined loss reserves through the remainder of 2008. Finally, while we expect that 2008 will be our peak year for credit-related expenses, the total amount of credit-related expenses will be significant in 2009.

All of this makes one wonder what the heck Freddie Mac CEO, Richard Syron was smoking yesterday when stated Freddie would postpone raising capital, something that would make sense only if conditions were expected to get better, not worse.

Fannie Mae's decision to cancel Alt-A loans tells the story. Expect losses on Alt-A to continue to horrendous, so much so that Fannie had to throw in the towel on Alt-A loans.

Lyrics American Pie

A long long time ago
I can still remember how that housing used to make me smile
And I knew if I had my chance
That I could make those people dance
And maybe they'd be happy for a while
But February made me shiver
With every paper I'd deliver
Bad news on the doorstep
I couldn't take one more step
I can't remember if I cried
When I read about the foreclosed brides
But something touched me deep inside
The day that Alt-A died

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2008 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved

Mike Shedlock Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules