Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Are UK Savings Interest Rates Finally Starting to Rise? Best Cash ISA 2017 - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Inflation Tsunami - Supermarkets, Retail Sector Crisis 2017, EU Suicide and Burning Stocks - Nadeem_Walayat
3.Big Moves in the World Stock Markets - Big Bases - Rambus_Chartology
4.The Next Financial Implosion Is Not Going To Be About The Banks! - Gordon_T_Long
5.Why EU BrExit Single Market Access Hard line is European Union Committing Suicide - Nadeem_Walayat
6.Trump Ramps Up US Military Debt Spending In Preparations for China War - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Watch What Happens When Silver Price Hits $26...  - MoneyMetals
8.Stock Market Fake Risk, Fake Return? Market Crash? - 2nd Mar 17 - Axel_Merk
9.Global Inflation Surges, Central Banks Losing Control and Triggered the Wage Price Spiral? - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Why Gold Will Boom In 2017 - James Burgess
Last 7 days
Stock Market Upward Reversal Or Just Quick Rebound Before Another Leg Down? - 23rd Mar 17
Trends to Look Out For as a Modern-day Landlord - 23rd Mar 17
Here’s Why Interstate Health Insurance Won’t Fix Obamacare / Trumpcare - 23rd Mar 17
China’s Biggest Limitations Determine the Future of East Asia - 23rd Mar 17
This is About So Much More Than Trump and Brexit - 23rd Mar 17
Trump Stock Market Rally Over? 20% Bear Drop By Mid Summer? - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Added $3 Trillion in Wealth to Stock Market Participants - 22nd Mar 17
What's Next for the US Dollar, Gold and Stocks? - 22nd Mar 17
MSM Bond Market Full Nonsense Mode as ‘Trump Trades’ Unwind on Schedule - 22nd Mar 17
Peak Gold – Biggest Gold Story Not Being Reported - 22nd Mar 17
Return of Sovereign France, Europe’s Changing Landscape - 22nd Mar 17
Trump Stocks Bull Market Rolling Over? You Were Warned! - 22nd Mar 17
Stock Market Charts That Scream “This Is It” - Here’s What to Do - 22nd Mar 17
Raising the Minimum Wage Is a Jobs Killing Move - 22nd Mar 17
Potential Bottoming Patterns in Gold and Silver Precious Metals Stocks Complex... - 22nd Mar 17
UK Stagflation, Soaring Inflation CPI 2.3%, RPI 3.2%, Real 4.4% - 21st Mar 17
The Demise of the Gold and Silver Bull Run is Greatly Exaggerated - 21st Mar 17
USD Decline Continues, Pull SPX Down as well? - 21st Mar 17
Trump Watershed Budget - 21st Mar 17
How do Client Acquisition Offers Affect Businesses? - 21st Mar 17
Physical Metals Demand Plus Manipulation Suits Will Break Paper Market - 20th Mar 17
Stock Market Uncertainty Following Interest Rate Increase - Will Uptrend Continue? - 20th Mar 17
Precious Metals : Who’s in Charge ? - 20th Mar 17
Stock Market Correction Continues - 20th Mar 17
Why The Status Quo Is Under Increasing Attack By 'Populist People Power' - 20th Mar 17
Why the SNP WILL Destroy Scotland, Exit UK Single Market for EU - IndyRef2 - 19th Mar 17
Crypto Craziness: Bitcoin Plunges on Fork Concerns, Steem Skyrockets and Dash Surges Above $100 - 19th Mar 17
What ‘Ice-Nine’ Means for Your Money - 19th Mar 17
Stock Market 4 Year Cycle - 18th Mar 17
The Only Article You Need to Read to Understand the Trump Phenomenon - 17th Mar 17
Janet Yellen Just Popped the Stock Market Bubble - 17th Mar 17
Financial Crisis, Steve Eisman: Smart, Lucky, Abrasive & Now One Of Them - 17th Mar 17
Gold Cup – Horse Racing’s Greatest Show, Gambling and ‘Going for Gold’ - 17th Mar 17
Trader Education Week - Free Event to Help You Learn to Spot Trading Opportunities - 17th Mar 17
$1.4 Trillion of SPX Notionals Due to Expire - 17th Mar 17
Preserving Order Amid Change in NAFTA, U.S. Sovereignty v. WTO - 17th Mar 17
3 Maps That Explain Why Syria Raqqa Battle Will Drag On - 17th Mar 17
Crude Oil Price Outlook 2017 - Video - 16th Mar 17
Dutch and French Electons - Winners are Losers and Left is Right - 16th Mar 17
The Straddle Trade Stock Market Brief - 16th Mar 17
Gold Up 1.8%, Silver Up 2.6% After Dovish Fed Signals Slow Interest Rate Rises - 16th Mar 17
Stocks Get Close To Record High Again As Fed Hikes Interest Rates - 16th Mar 17
Scotland Second Independence Referendum War - SNP Determined to Destroy the UK - 16th Mar 17
Here’s How Pharma Is Using AI Deep Learning To Cure Aging - 16th Mar 17
Stock Market Chaos in the Chicken Coop - 15th Mar 17
Gold and Silver Price Manipulation: The Biggest Financial Crime In History - 15th Mar 17
“Ryancare” Dead on Arrival: Can We Please Now Try Single Payer? - 15th Mar 17
Fanaticism, Stock Market Crash 2017 or Continuation of Bull Market - 15th Mar 17
Stock Market Most Overvalued On Record — Worse Than 1929? - 15th Mar 17
Desperate Saudi Arabia Turns to Asia for Investment - 15th Mar 17
Startups Will Define the Future of US Employment - 15th Mar 17
Fed Rate Hikes, Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy and Why Again the Case for Gold? - 15th Mar 17
SNP Declare Scotland to Commit Economic Suicide Early 2019, 2nd Independence Referendum - 14th Mar 17

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Elliott Wave Trading

First UK BrExit then Trump, Next BrExit Tsunami Wave to Hit Italy HARD Sunday!

ElectionOracle / Italy Dec 03, 2016 - 05:18 PM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

ElectionOracle

The people of Britain voting for freedom from an emerging european super state on 23rd of June 2016 has ignited a fire in the people across the western world who had been increasingly been turned off by pass the parcel politics of the last 40 years, one of lying politicians that had long since detached themselves from the reality of the lives of ordinary people, where over time they came to believe their own lies, and so are primed to be repeatedly shocked by the impossible. BrExit was supposed to be impossible, Trump becoming President was supposed to be impossible and we don't need to look far to see that both were shock events that the establishment, politicians, pollsters, mainstream media, markets, and bookies never saw coming.


For what happened in Britain that shocked the establishment ruling elite out of their complacency watch the following video of what happened on BrExit night that caught virtually ALL by surprise as illustrated by my selection of the highlights from 8 hours of BBC coverage of the EU Referendum result.

And for why the establishment media never saw the Trump election win coming see -

https://youtu.be/n8NGHJKa5t8

So far TRUE BrExit is that which took place in Britain. Unfortunately for American freedom seekers the only choice they had on offer was between a delusional politician Hillary Clinton, who perceived being married to former President Bill Clinton implied that she had the right to occupy the White House for the next 4 years. As if she was the best America had to offer form a pool of over 300 million, talk about scraping the bottom of the barrel!

Whilst on the other hand we had a reality TV star who equally delusionally lives in an even far more detached alternative reality bubble than Hillary Clinton, but 10 years of self promotion on prime time TV gave him the unique opportunity to ride the Brexit freedom wave into the White house, spouting a continuous stream of lies, making unachievable promises that the fact checkers gave up on trying to check. For how a Trump Presidency is likely to turn out then watch my slick production of March 2016.

ITALY ITEXIT Next?

Firstly exactly what is the Italian referendum all about?

A vote to amend the Italian constitution so as to reduce the number of senators and the power of the senate and thus concentrate power in the hands of the executive branch of government.

So clearly it's not a referendum about EU membership or whether a rich alternative reality TV star should be put in charge of running the country. Rather Prime Minister Matteo Renzi wants to concentrate more power in his hands so that he can turn around an economy that has been in economic depression for over 8 years!

What about the opinion polls?

Apparently the opinion polls went into blackout mode on 18th November when they were typically giving the NO camp the lead on 53%.

What about the betting markets?

No betfair market but traditional bookies put NO on 1/3 and YES on 2-1. So at least for this vote the pollsters and the bookies are saying a Brexit outcome is more probable than not.

What would Italy being hit by the Brexit wave actually mean?

The only consequence I can see is that Matteo Renzi resigns and likely triggers an early Italian general election. Beyond that everything is rather foggy, but an general election would open the door to the populist 5 Star movement. So whilst a BrExit style anti-establishment result looks likely in Italy, however it does not result in anything like Brexit as it happened in the UK as it has nothing to do with membership of the european union.

NO vote will HIT Italy HARD

The key point is this, a NO vote is a win for the anti-establishment vote which will spook the markets for it is a harbinger of worse to come i.e. demands for more powers being pulled back from Brussels. So the referendum is more like firing the starting gun for an eventual UK style BrExit referendum. So creates political, market and economic instability in Italy that could likely culminate in credit crisis event, i.e. somewhere along the path of where Greece and Cypress found themselves triggering loss of sovereignty to Germany.

The bottom line is that a NO result is the START of Italy's path towards a BrExit LEAVE the Euro-zone referendum vote probably several years down the road after much more financial and economic pain as its bankrupt banks teeter further on the brink of financial collapse as their bad loans mushroom to horrendous levels, some 40% of all of europe's bad debts are owed to Italian banks!

At the end of the day Italy is just a bigger version of Greece i.e. we only need to look at Italy's 140% Debt to GDP, and thus is destined to follow a similar painful path towards a Euro-zone EXIT. Which means a run on Italian banks that is already underway is going to further intensify as euros continue to flood out of the country which WILL trigger a costly Italian banking sector bailout.

Also an Italian NO vote will embolden anti-establishment movements in other EU states such as France, Netherlands and Germany. So the next real big Brexit elephant in the eurozone room is France which I will take a closer look at in a separate article.

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis and detailed trend forecasts.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2016 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Catching a Falling Financial Knife