Hillary Polls Lead Slumps to +1.3%, Trump on Target to WIN US Election 2016
ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Nov 04, 2016 - 06:24 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
We are now less than 4 days away from when the polls open on Tuesday 8th November, Trump and Clinton and crews have been busy shuttling around the key battleground states to bolster their votes as the election boils down to who can win at least 270 electoral college votes. For instance Florida with its key 29 votes is literally sitting on a 50/50 knife edge, a must win state for Trump! Other 50/50 states are North Carolina (15 votes), with another 9 states having poll leads of 3% or less totaling 82 electoral college votes, so near 130 electoral college votes are in play enough for either Trump or Hillary to win.
The average of the national opinion polls continue to tighten to now put Hillary just +1.3% ahead of Trump, which compares against 1.7% yesterday and 2.2% the day before, thus implying near parity by election day! Now compare this to just 10 days ago when Hillary was +6% ahead of Trump!
As for the betting markets, Trump shows a marginal improvement at 3.45 from 3.5 yesterday, against 3.75 the day before. What this means is if one placed a £100 bet on Trump today then if he won that would result in a profit of £245 (+stake). Whilst a £100 bet for Hillary would yield a £42 profit if she won, which illustrates that the betting markets remain strongly skewed in Hillary's favour.
And what about the so called analysts such as Nate Silver's http://fivethirtyeight.com site, what's there current stance this late in the game?
That's right, still clearly backing Hillary to win on 66%, though they do tend to be very volatile i.e. have ranged between 65% and 88% for Hillary during the past 2 weeks! Yes, that's right they had Hillary at about 88% less than 2 weeks ago!
Current state of other forecasters:
New York Times (4th November 2016) - Hillary 85%, Trump 15%
Princeton Election Consortium - Clinton 317, Trump 209 (270 winning post)
http://www.electionprojection.com (3rd Nov 2016) - Hillary 48.5%, Trump 46.5%
Moody's Analytics model (1st Nov 2016) - Hillary 332, Trump 206 (270 winning post).
http://pollyvote.com/ (4th Nov 2016) - Hillary 323, Trump 215
https://www.predictit.org (4th Nov 2016) - Clinton 71c, Trump 34c ($1 winner).
However, things are much worse for Hillary than her polls lead and polls analyst forecasters imply, and definitely then the betting markets as my analysis has consistently iterated that Trump does not ever have to be in the lead in the opinion polls to actually WIN the election due to the BrExit factor that allows for a 3-4% swing against the opinion polls in the actual election result as a consequence of Donald Trump being America's first anti-establishment candidate in perhaps at least the past 40 years who I expect to capitalise on the BrExit factor that shocked the British establishment back in June 2016 due to the fact that the pollsters, political pundits and betting markets all got the result very badly wrong, so instead of REMAIN winning by 4% as had been the expectation right into the close of the polls, REMAIN actually LOST by 4%! THE BREXIT FACTOR, one of the British people giving the establishment elite a very bloody nose and so is the case for THIS US Presidential election.
25 Sep 2016 - US Presidential Election Forecast 2016 - Trump Riding BrExit Wave into the White House
And here is my most recent video analysis on the prospects for Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton winning the US Presidential Election 2016 posted on 2nd November:
The bottom line is that the POLLS are WRONG, the BOOKIES are WRONG, JUST as they were WRONG for BREXIT, Just as they were WRONG for the May 2015 UK General Election, just as they were WRONG for the Scottish Sept 2014 Referendum, and now will be found to be WRONG for the 2016 US Presidential Election!
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By Nadeem WalayatCopyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.
Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.
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