Donald Trump on Life Support, May Abandon Election Campaign and War on Republican Party
ElectionOracle / US Presidential Election 2016 Oct 15, 2016 - 03:18 PM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The relentless barrage of main stream media bad news stories on a daily basis is keeping the pressure on the Trump camp that according to the Book making odds remains trading near all time lows, and with just 3 weeks to go there is no sign of any recovery, especially as now senior republicans are abandoning Trump, as top GOP donors urge the Republican party to disavow Donald Trump to which Trump countering with statements of betrary, that they are all part of the same cabal, the global elite that enslaves America's working and middle classes that have seen their wealth evaporate whilst the elites wealth and power has soared.
US Presidential Election 2016 Betfair Market
| Date | Time (BST) | Hillary | Trump | Comments |
| 25th Sept | 1.58 | 3.05 | Trending in Trumps favour | |
| 27th Sept | 2am | 1.57 | 2.88 | Trump peaks just prior to the start of the 1st debate |
| 27th Sept | 4am | 1.44 | 3.35 | Just after the 1st debate confirming Trump lost. |
| 30th Sept | 3am | 1.45 | 3.45 | Odds continuing to move against Trump election win |
| 30th Sept | 9pm | 1.39 | 3.75 | Accelerating meltdown of Trump odds |
| 1st Oct | 2pm | 1.37 | 3.85 | Still little sign of Trump recovery |
| 4th Oct | 9pm | 1.35 | 4.05 | Trump continues losing trend |
| 5th Oct | 5am | 1.36 | 3.90 | Pence wins VP debate |
| 7th Oct | 5pm | 1.38 | 3.8 | Trump recovery continues |
| 8th Oct | 12pm | 1.32 | 4.8 | Effect of leaked audio tape of Trump Groping women |
| 9th Oct | 8pm | 1.25 | 5.7 | Trump campaign in free fall |
| 10th Oct | 4.30am | 1.27 | 5.2 | Trump wins 2nd Debate. |
| 11th Oct | 4pm | 1.21 | 6.2 | Trump crashes to new low of 6.4 |
| 12th Oct | 2am | 1.20 | 6.4 | No end in sign to Trump collapse |
| 15th Oct | 4pm | 1.19 | 6.6 | Trump on life support, may decide to abandon campaign. |
Whilst the always to be taken with a pinch of salt opinion polls have always put Hillary on a commanding lead that currently stands at 47% against Trump on 40%, a huge 7 point gap. However to illustrate the magnitude of the wall that Trump now has to climb, the bookies, a usually far more accurate measure than vested interest opinion polling, currently have Trump trading on 6.6 (Betfair) against Hillary on 1.19, a relentless trend against Trump since the 27th of September when Trump peaked at 2.88 against Hillary on 1.57.
At that time I published my forecast conclusion that based on the then trend trajectory forecast that Donald Trump would win the election, however given that he is unable to control his mouth, so just as for my earlier BrExit forecast. I stated I would come back to a forecast conclusion about 10 days prior to election day.
Since which in the wake of a series of scandals, I highlighted what Trump needs to do to win the election on the 2nd of October.
Whilst my most recent analysis of 12th of October, with 26 days to go that despite everything pointing to Hillary easily winning the election, the pollsters, bookies, pundits and forecasters ALL saying Hillary is going to win, that concluded why it was not quite over yet -
So here we stand on the 15th of October with a little over 3 weeks to go and with no sign of Trump even hitting bottom yet! So whilst I will come back to a forecast conclusion towards the end of October, however Trump's campaign is literally on life support, and it's going to take a miracle to undo the damage done during during the past 3 weeks, so if this trend persists then by the end of October even Trump may by then have thrown in the towel and no longer be actively campaigning to win the election but rather seeking revenge on the Republican party for betraying their candidate.
By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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