Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Eiro-group Review –The power of trading education - 4th Dec 20
Early Investors set to win big as FDA fast-tracks this ancient medicine - 3rd Dec 20
New PC System Switch On, Where's Windows 10 Licence Key? Overclockers UK OEM Review (5) - 3rd Dec 20
Poundland Budget Christmas Decorations Shopping 2020 to Beat the Corona Economic Depression - 3rd Dec 20
What is the right type of insurance for you, and how do you find it? - 3rd Dec 20
What Are the 3 Stocks That Will Benefit from Covid-19? - 3rd Dec 20
Gold & the USDX: Correlations - 2nd Dec 20
How An Ancient Medicine Is Taking On The $16 Trillion Pharmaceutical Industry - 2nd Dec 20
Amazon Black Friday vs Prime Day vs Cyber Monday, Which are Real or Fake Sales - 1st Dec 20
The No.1 Biotech Stock for 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Stocks Bears Last Chance Before Market Rally To SPX 4200 In 2021 - 1st Dec 20
Globalists Poised for a “Great Reset” – Any Role for Gold? - 1st Dec 20
How to Get FREE REAL Christmas Tree 2020! Easy DIY Money Saving - 1st Dec 20
The Truth About “6G” - 30th Nov 20
Ancient Aztec Secret Could Lead To A $6.9 Billion Biotech Breakthrough - 30th Nov 20
AMD Ryzen Zen 3 NO UK MSRP Stock - 5600x, 5800x, 5900x 5950x Selling at DOUBLE FAKE MSRP Prices - 29th Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Decision Time - 29th Nov 20
Look at These 2 Big Warning Signs for the U.S. Economy - 29th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Short-term and Long-term Trend Analysis - 28th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase – Part II - 28th Nov 20
BLOCKCHAIN INVESTMENT PRIMER - 28th Nov 20
The Gold Stocks Correction is Maturing - 28th Nov 20
Biden and Yellen Pushed Gold Price Down to $1,800 - 28th Nov 20
Sheffield Christmas Lights 2020 - Peace Gardens vs 2019 and 2018 - 28th Nov 20
MUST WATCH Before You Waste Money on Buying A New PC Computer System - 27th Nov 20
Gold: Insurance for Prudent Investors, Precious Metals Reduce Risk & Preserve Wealth - 27th Nov 20
How To Spot The End Of An Excess Market Trend Phase - 27th Nov 20
Snow Falling Effect Christmas Lights Outdoor Projector Amazon Review - 27th Nov 20
4 Reasons Why You Shouldn't Put off Your Roof Repairs - 27th Nov 20
Further Clues Reveal Gold’s Weakness - 26th Nov 20
Fun Things to Do this Christmas - 26th Nov 20
Industries that Require Secure Messaging Apps - 26th Nov 20
Dow Stock Market Trend Analysis - 25th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday Dell 32 Inch S3220DGF VA Curved Screen Gaming Monitor Bargain Deal! - 25th Nov 20
Biden the Silver Bull - 25th Nov 20
Inflation Warning to the Fed: Be Careful What You Wish For - 25th Nov 20
Financial Stocks Sector ETF Shows Unique Island Setup – What Next? - 25th Nov 20
Herd Immunity or Herd Insolvency: Which Will Affect Gold More? - 25th Nov 20
Stock Market SEASONAL TREND and ELECTION CYCLE - 24th Nov 20
Amazon Black Friday - Karcher K7 FC Pressure Washer Assembly and 1st Use - Is it Any Good? - 24th Nov 20
I Dislike Shallow People And Shallow Market Pullbacks - 24th Nov 20
Small Traders vs. Large Traders vs. Commercials: Who Is Right Most Often? - 24th Nov 20
10 Reasons You Should Trade With a Regulated Broker In UK - 24th Nov 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - 23rd Nov 20
Evolution of the Fed - 23rd Nov 20
Gold and Silver Now and Then - A Comparison - 23rd Nov 20
Nasdaq NQ Has Stalled Above a 1.382 Fibonacci Expansion Range Three Times - 23rd Nov 20
Learn How To Trade Forex Successfully - 23rd Nov 20
Market 2020 vs 2016 and 2012 - 22nd Nov 20
Gold & Silver - Adapting Dynamic Learning Shows Possible Upside Price Rally - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market Short-term Correction - 22nd Nov 20
Stock Market SPY/SPX Island Setups Warn Of A Potential Reversal In This Uptrend - 21st Nov 20
Why Budgies Make Great Pets for Kids - 21st Nov 20
How To Find The Best Dry Dog Food For Your Furry Best Friend?  - 21st Nov 20
The Key to a Successful LGBT Relationship is Matching by Preferences - 21st Nov 20
Stock Market Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - 20th Nov 20
Margin: How Stock Market Investors Are "Reaching for the Stars" - 20th Nov 20
World’s Largest Free-Trade Pact Inspiration for Global Economic Recovery - 20th Nov 20
Dating Sites Break all the Stereotypes About Distance - 20th Nov 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Germany Has No Power to Solve the European Crisis

Politics / Eurozone Debt Crisis Sep 22, 2016 - 05:40 PM GMT

By: John_Mauldin

Politics

BY LILI BAYER : Germany faces a growing number of crises, both at home and abroad. But it has limited power to address them. The country needs stability in Ukraine. It wants to influence Russia. And Germany needs to deal with the influx of refugees from Turkey. This requires an agreement with that country.

Recently, the German leadership met with officials in Europe and abroad to address these crises. On Sept. 15, the foreign ministers of Germany and France toured Ukraine's war-torn east. In August, the German foreign minister went to Moscow to discuss the problems in Ukraine and Syria.


Germany criticized Turkey’s actions following the failed coup. This strained relations with Ankara. And it raised questions about the future of the EU’s refugee deal with Turkey. On Aug. 7, a German state secretary rushed to Turkey to “re-establish direct channels of communication.”

These meetings are a small sign of a larger problem for the government in Berlin. For Germany, stability in Ukraine and the EU’s deal with Turkey on refugees are two priorities. Germany wants to play a leading role in resolving these crises.

But it is finding that the US government—not Berlin—actually has the power.

Berlin’s concerns

For Germany, stability in Ukraine is crucial. On Aug. 10, Russia accused the government in Kiev of conducting a raid in Russia-controlled Crimea. It threatened to call off planned talks with Ukraine, Germany, and France. Since the start of the conflict, Germany has tried to mediate. They’ve led multiple talks between Russia and Ukraine.

Berlin has sought this role to prevent conflict on Europe’s periphery. It fears that increased Russian aggression in Ukraine would deepen divisions between the EU’s eastern and western members. The East sees Russia as a threat. In the West, Russia is just a secondary challenge.

But, Berlin’s ability to sway Moscow or play a leading role in dealmaking is limited. European governments’ main tool for shaping Russia’s actions has been sanctions. However, sanctions are now a minor thorn in Russia’s side. Low oil prices are the primary cause of its economic woes.

Washington’s Role

Germany and France are the main negotiators between Russia and Ukraine. But Berlin is not able to guarantee the key compromises Moscow wants. The Kremlin wants Ukraine to remain a neutral power. This means not joining NATO or receiving military aid from the West.

But, Germany has politically supported pro-Western forces in Ukraine. So Russia thinks a deal negotiated by Berlin would be worthless without America’s agreement. As such, the US plays a dominant role in the talks.

The same type of dynamic is at work with Turkey. The US has all the power. The migrant crisis has shown the lack of clear decision-making in the EU. It has also caused EU citizens to lose even more trust in its leaders.

The EU’s deal with Turkey is its main way to stem the flow of migrants into the bloc. The EU has promised Turkey funds and visa-free travel to the Schengen Zone in return for taking back refugees.

But, European voters don’t like the prospect of granting visa-free travel to Turkey. This has also sparked security concerns among EU policymakers.

To qualify for visa-free travel, Turkey must meet 72 criteria outlined by the EU. Meeting all of the agreement’s terms seemed like a difficult feat even when the deal was signed. After Turkey's failed coup, both sides know that visa-free travel is off the table, though they don’t admit it publicly.

Ankara’s posturing

Turkey has threatened to quit the migrant deal if no progress is made on visa-free travel. In reality, it probably wants other concessions as well. However, Berlin has relatively little to offer Turkey other than funds. Turkey would take the money, but what it really wants is security. It is very concerned with what NATO and Syria will do.

Turkey is negotiating with Russia, the US, and the EU. The EU is leaving most of its part in the dealing to Germany.

But Turkey’s approach to each of these relationships changes often. Turkey wants the best deal and will do what it needs to in order to get it. The US, Germany, and the rest of the EU are watching what Turkey will do next. They worry that Turkey might try to reignite a refugee crisis in Europe.

Berlin is concerned about stability in Ukraine and Turkey’s moves. But there’s just not much it can do about either. Germany is Europe’s largest economy and a major player in Europe. But when it comes to dealing with Ankara and Moscow, it is the US, and not Germany, that is in a position to work things out.

Watch George Friedman's Groundbreaking Documentary Crisis & Chaos: Are We Moving Toward World War III?

Germany’s fading influence is part of a storm of instability engulfing a region that’s home to 5 billion of the planet’s 7 billion people.

In this provocative documentary from Mauldin Economics and Geopolitical Futures, George Friedman uncovers the crises convulsing Europe, the Middle East, and Asia… and reveals the geopolitical chess moves that could trigger global conflict. Register for the online premiere now.

John Mauldin Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules