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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market Sentiment Improves Following Fed's Rate Decision, Will The Uptrend Continue?

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Sep 22, 2016 - 01:53 PM GMT

By: Paul_Rejczak

Stock-Markets

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral


The main U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.9-1.1% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to FOMCRate Decision announcement. The S&P 500 index broke above its short-term consolidation along the level of 2,160. However, it still remains slightly below its two-month-long consolidation following June - July rally. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,170, marked by the daily gap down of 2,169.08-2,177.49. On the other hand, support level is at 2,150, marked by previous level of resistance. The next important support level is at around 2,120-2,130. Is this a new uptrend or just upward correction following the early September move down?

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are positive, with index futures currently up 0.3%. The European stock market indexes have gained 1.3-2.0% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., FHFA Housing Price Index at 9:00 a.m., Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday uptrend, as it extends its yesterday's rally. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,160-2,165, marked by previous local high. The next important level of resistance is at 2,170-2,180. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. The market trades within a short-term uptrend, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract is relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it trades close to new all-time high. The nearest important support level is at around 4,800-4,820, marked by previous level of resistance. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term overbought conditions:

Concluding, the broad stock market broke above its short-term consolidation yesterday, following Fed's Rate Decision release. The S&P 500 index retraced more of its early September decline, as it broke above its recent consolidation. However, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,210 and potential profit target is at 2,050 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts
SunshineProfits.com

Stock market strategist, who has been known for quality of his technical and fundamental analysis since the late nineties. He is interested in forecasting market behavior based on both traditional and innovative methods of technical analysis. Paul has made his name by developing mechanical trading systems. Paul is the author of Sunshine Profits’ premium service for stock traders: Stock Trading Alerts.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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