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Stock Market Trend Forecast Oct - Dec 2019 by Nadeem Walayat

Stock Market Waiting On Wednesday.....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Sep 20, 2016 - 10:32 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Boring. Simple as that. The market is boring. It whips about, but goes nowhere in the end. That's because the market wants to always go higher in the new fed environment, but because the economy is worsening it's having more resistance from the bears. In the end, we go nowhere. It is what it is. The global economy is mirroring our economy here at home. Both are on steep declines based on the key reports we've received over the past couple of weeks.

We are watching it fall across the board. ISM Manufacturing Report and services along with retail sales. Not small drops. Huge disappointments across the board. The Jobs Report was weaker, although not as weak as the rest of those key reports. And with weakness comes a fed that will most likely say no rate hike for September. Maybe in December, but data dependent.

It's the same old nonsense that the market is getting used to if not tired of. No one believes Fed Yellen any more, even if she tries to tell us that she'll likely raise in December. The market knows that a continuation of weak economic data means you can forget about a December rate hike. The global situation is frustrating the likes of Mr. Draghi over in the Euro zone who for once is admitting that maybe it's time to pull back from all the QE nonsense. since it doesn't seem to be helping. This from the same man who said he'll do whatever it takes many months back. He seems to be accepting that flooding the banks with cash is not the answer. Folks still aren't doing risky adventures. Give the money to the people directly, but that makes too much sense. It's always about taking care of the banks, and never the people directly. It's fine to help people, but only if the banks benefit. Get me a toilet. Anyway, it's about Wednesday.

So what about Wednesday anyway. It will be very interesting. If I am right and she says no rate hike for now my guess is a quick blast higher. The question is what from there? I think it may sell back down, but we won't know that until the day is over. The usual we love low rates that will spike us up, but I wonder if the market is getting tired of all of this nonsense. At some point it will, but that may be a long time from now. We'll know the market is tired of it all when it can close forcefully below the 2100 S&P 500 up trend line that is critical support initially. Then the 200-day exponential moving average is eleven points below that. First, lose the trend line if you're a bear. Until that happens the market isn't sick of low rates. It'll tell you it's totally in love with low rates when we clear 2194 on the S&P 500 with force on a closing basis and not before.

There is lots of whipsaw for now as folks are battling it out. The greatest disconnect ever continues on for now. The bears must seize the day one of these times. Is it coming Wednesday even on bullish news? We shall know shortly.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

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© 2016

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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