Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Quiet Week...Volatile But Quiet...

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Sep 17, 2016 - 11:18 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The week was wild, but quiet when all was said and done. Last Friday saw a strong move lower with no follow-through to the down side this week by the bears. Nothing unusual about that. The bears haven't followed through meaningfully in longer than I can remember. That said, this week saw the market move mostly lateral, meaning the bulls didn't just blast things right back up as they usually do with no resistance from the bears. The bears are fighting a little bit. More than we've seen in recent months.


The volatility is higher, due to the behavior in the VIX from last week's down side action. It's not as boring now as it was months prior. At least we're not trading day after day in a very tiny range of one percent or less. Two months of that was enough thankfully. I think folks like the volatility but let's be honest, going nowhere doesn't make trading much easier. One could say a bear flag is forming short-term, but that's irrelevant for one major reason. Fed Yellen.

Here she comes again with yet another "no-rate-hike" statement for our listening pleasure come next Wednesday. The action all of this week was due mostly to the market waiting to hear what fed Yellen will do to the fed market. Nothing matters any longer. Only the fed matters, and that's really sad-but-true statement about our current market. The market is sitting mostly flat as it awaits the good tidings from the mouth of our market leader. Nothing much will happen until she talks, and lets us all know what the future holds in terms of rates. The market on-hold is so boring, but so common now. So, yes, it's all about next Wednesday, so place your Russian roulette bets.

I think I know what Fed Yellen will say Wednesday. I think the market knows what she will say on Wednesday. The market is not expecting a rate hike. It's not going to happen for three simple reasons. ISM Manufacturing Report, ISM Services, and Retail Sales. All three reports were a disaster. Big misses the last week plus, and those misses were all on the most important aspects of our current economy. Everything is slowing, and doing so quite dramatically. We all know how she hates to raise rates when things are going well, so the odds of her raising rates, in my opinion, are zero. I could always be wrong, but that's my thinking.

In Yellen's mind, a declining economy must be in concert with near zero interest rates. My guess is, she will also mention, once again, about how she will be watching future data on the economy, meaning she's not raising rates this year in all likelihood. She will need to see many consecutive months of improvement in all the key areas, and right now we're going the wrong way. The real question is what the market will do when she says no rate hike and talks about being data dependent. Will the market finally say it doesn't care and start moving towards truth, or will it stay in Disneyland? We'll find out soon enough. History says the market will blast up on the news. I'm not so sure this time, but we'll know on Wednesday.

You really have to wonder how a market can hang in there with news on the economy being so bad. I think the real concern in many ways is away from the economy. The real world says folks are struggling and doing so in a big way. Manufacturing is in a technical recession, based on it being below 50.0. A 49-reading a week is back. Services, which is most of our economy these days, went from 58 down to 51. A scary drop in such a small amount of time. Retail sales went away. The precipitous drop out of the blue has to be very concerning for our economy without any concerns for our few market. What is really going on? Rates have been low forever. There have been endless QE programs. Part of Europe, and all of Japan, is dealing with negative rates, yet nothing is coming alive economically on global level. Nothing seems to be working, so you have to wonder what the fed is thinking. None of her tricks are working. Central bankers around the world just can't get anything to work.

The real concern is to take care of the public, and that seems to be something that's not happening and many are suffering. I have no answers nor does the fed, it seems. That said, we'll see what Wednesday brings and how the market reacts.
Keeping it light here.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2016 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in