Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market Double Bottom Positive Divergence Fails To Rally Market Big For Now

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Sep 15, 2016 - 09:50 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman

Stock-Markets

The market recently tested down to 2119 last Friday on the talk of a rate hike and poor economic reports. We saw the ISM Manufacturing Report and services come in well below expectations. Friday was painful, but the market tested down to 2019, which is still one full percent above the 2100 up trend line of massive support. After a fed Brainard rally on Monday, we saw the market head lower once again yesterday as it touched 2120. A nice double bottom at the lows, which also happened to set up a positive divergence on the short-term only, sixty-minute index charts. The daily charts aren't anything worth talking about from a bullish perspective. They're now more bearish in nature. However, a double bottom with short-term positive divergences usually means, especially in a bull market, that we'll test higher somewhat short-term.


The bulls were not let down early this morning on from that perspective at all, although it wasn't a rousing rally such as we saw on Monday. It failed late however. The bears are more active these days as witnessed by the carnage from last Friday and Tuesday, not only on price, but also on volume and on the decline/advance line which was nearly 10/1 negative. The bears may have to give it up come next Wednesday if Fed Yellen spreads her magic dust around, but, for now, the bears are definitely in fight mode. They're not just lying down and letting the bulls kick them around. Respect the effort, and respect the selling in terms of what it has done to the daily oscillators on all the key index charts. Not great for the bulls at all at this moment in time. It can turn, but it's not great here. Bottom line is today we saw the effects of a short-term set of positive divergences early in the day, but that hasn't turned things more bullish quite yet. Things are still unclear. Also, we closed well off the highs with the S&P 500 and Dow lagging badly. Apple Inc. (AAPL) holding up the Nasdaq.

In the end, however, it will be all about next Wednesday's fed report on interest rates. The question in my mind isn't about whether or not she'll raise rates. To me that's a slam dunk. A zero percent chance in my eyes. The question to me is more about the market's reaction to yet another favorable statement from the fed. Have we reached the point where the market no longer cares about her actions? Will the promise of more free time near zero rates matter any longer? That's what we'll be finding out. The market knows no rate hike is forth coming. The economic reports won't allow for that at this moment in time. If a market is indeed actually topping out, then it will stop responding to the good news that moved it higher for a long period of time. That time may, or may not, be upon us. We can't know. The market will tell us on Wednesday the 21. She may use some words to make it seem like she's still interested in raising rates, but the market has heard enough of her verbal garbage to know not to trust her. She will be a dove, but is this the time when doves cry? Not sure. The bears are hoping and the market is acting as if it may be time for a change. In the end, we will only know by the action in price.

If we lose 2100 on a closing basis it's trouble for the bulls. You never want to lose a very long-term uptrend line on a closing basis. Turns the action from bullish to more bearish. If we blow through 2194 on the promise of more low rates, then we know the next leg up has likely begun, and the bears are once again feeling pain. Between now and next Wednesday, I expect high volatility. Keeping it light. Today's whipsaw action tells you why I am.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to SwingTradeOnline.com!

© 2016 SwingTradeOnline.com

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in