Stock Market Bounce May be Over
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Aug 11, 2016 - 03:38 PM GMT
The hourly chart puts the SPX is a good context for understanding this bounce/retracement. There are virtually no shorts here to run, so the algos are likely to pack up and see what happens. The caution point is where the hourly Cycle Top at 2185.15 and short-term trendline lay.
A reversal/pivot here may give the SPX the momentum to break the next trendline support at 2171.00. Mid-Cycle support is just beneath it at 2169.26, so we may wish to use it as our next short entry point.
VIX appears to be more resilient than expected. A breakout above yesterday’s high may be considered an aggressive buy for VIX, but a safer entry would be above the trendline and mid-Cycle resistance at 13.80.
The same comment may be said for TNX, which is falling short of its retracement potential. It is uncertain whether the retracement is done, but it may not be a surprise if it is, since TNX needs another probe lower before a larger retracement takes place.
What may be in store is a potential breakdown beneath its last low at 14.84 before the larger retracement.
I’m off to attend the funeral of a friend of the family. I should return this mid-afternoon.
Regards,
Tony
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