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US GDP Forecast Sinks to 1.8% Following Advance Economic Indicators Reports

Economics / US Economy Jul 29, 2016 - 11:57 AM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Economics

Today the Census Department released its first "Advance Economic Indicators Report". The new report adds wholesale and retail inventories to its existing International Trade in Goods report.


For details see Trade Deficit Widens as Imports Rise More Than Exports; Advance Economic Indicators Initial Release.

Following the report, the GDPNow Forecast dropped 0.5 percentage points to 1.8%.

Latest forecast: 1.8 percent - July 28, 2016

The final GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.8 percent on July 28, down from 2.3 percent on July 27. After the U.S. Census Bureau's inaugural release of its advance economic indicators report, which covers retail and wholesale inventories and foreign trade in goods, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth declined from 0.17 percentage points to -0.10 percentage points and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to growth declined from -0.63 percentage points to -0.79 percentage points.

That is the final DGPNow forecast for the second quarter.

The "Advance" BEA Gross Domestic Product, for 2nd quarter 2016 comes out tomorrow. The next GDPNow forecast will be for third quarter.

Note how lagging these BEA GDP reports are. The third quarter is nearly a third over and we will just now get data for the second quarter (and it will be revised again and again).

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2016 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Mike Shedlock Archive

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