Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

A Fed Bondsy Scheme

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jul 12, 2016 - 02:53 PM GMT

By: Ed_Carlson

Stock-Markets

Who needs the Fed's QE when the world is seemingly beating down the doors to buy US bonds? But like all Ponzi schemes, the end eventually comes. Last week's record low in bond yields arrived at the same time as an expected 6 month low in yields and may have marked at least a temporary end to the scheme. Stay tuned for a reversal in interest rates and its effect on equity markets as liquidity in global markets dries up.


Over 30% of global sovereign bonds are trading at negative interest rates with the Dutch 10yr bond the latest to go negative last week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note set a record low on Friday and appears headed for a negative rate in the future. Defensive sectors like utilities, telecom, and staples are wildly outperforming and trading at rich multiples, historically. VIX has dropped over 48% in the last two weeks... the biggest collapse in fear ever. Gold was up for the 6th straight week... the longest streak since its bull market topped in Aug 2011. Something is wrong!

I have allowed for the possibility that the February low was the bottom of the Basic Decline which began in May 2015 (making it a sub-normal Basic Decline) but my base case has been that the final low is still ahead of us. A long Basic Decline must end no later than August 7 and the Hybrid forecast is for a low during the final days of July. If the upcoming low is higher than earlier lows this year then a new bull market can be presumed to have begun in February. But with the observations noted above, it seems markets still have a strong possibility of breaching those lows. If correct, look for a nice bounce in August prior to the second Basic Decline usually seen in Terminal Declines of the Long Cycle.

For now we are focused on the Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a top... now. Last Friday or early this week. The forecast is laid out below.

July 8-12 High

The high of a flattened top on 12/27/06 counts 1,742 days to the low of the Basic Cycle on 10/4/11. 1,742 days later is Monday, July 11. A breakdown from a flattened top on 10/29/01 counts 2,685 days to the low of the Multiple Cycle on 3/6/09. 2,685 days later is Tuesday, July 12.

Cycles

A micro-cycle points to a high near Friday, July 8. That cycle may force the high to come before the weekend, rather than after it. A weekly cycle high points to the same week.

Lindsay Intervals

A 222-day interval (221-224) from 12/1/15 points to a turn in the period July 11-12. A 107-day interval (102-112 days) counts 106 days to July 8.

Try a "sneak-peek " this month at Seattle Technical Advisors.com

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

© 2016 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in