Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Dow Long-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Triggering a Stocks Bear Market? - 27th Feb 20
Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the Debt - 27th Feb 20
Oil Price Is Now More Volatile Than Bitcoin - 27th Feb 20
A Digital “Fedcoin” May Be Coming… And It Would Be Terrifying - 27th Feb 20
India's Nifty 50 Stocks: Does the Bad Jobs Outlook Spell Trouble for Stocks? - 27th Feb 20
How Crypto Currencies Are Helping Players Go Private - 27th Feb 20 -
Gold and Silver The Die Is Cast - 27th Feb 20
US Economy Permanently Addicted to Zero Interest Rates - 27th Feb 20
Has the Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 27th Feb 20
Advantages of Enrolling in a Retirement Plan - 27th Feb 20 - LS
South Korea Coronavirus Outbreak Data Analysis Warning Rate of Infection is Exponential! - 26th Feb 20
Gold Price Long-term Trend Analysis Forecast 2020 - 26th Feb 20
Fake Markets Are on Collision Course with Reality - 26th Feb 20
Microsoft is Crushing the S&P 500, Secret Trait Of Stocks That Soar 1,000%+ - 26th Feb 20
Europe's Best Ski Resorts For The Ultimate Adventure - 26th Feb 20
Samsung Galaxy S20+ vs Galaxy S10+ Which One to Buy? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Is Taking on $1,700 amid Rising Coronavirus Fears - 26th Feb 20
Is This What Falling Through the Floor Looks Like in Stocks? - 26th Feb 20
Gold Minsky Moment Coming - 26th Feb 20
Why Every Student Should Study Economics - 26th Feb 20
Stock Market Correction Over? - 26th Feb 20
US Bond Market Yield Curve Patterns – What To Expect In 2020 - 25th Feb 20
Has Stock Market Waterfall Event Started Or A Buying Opportunity? - 25th Feb 20
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK - 25th Feb 20
Dow Short-term Trend Analysis - Coronavirus Trigger a Stocks Bear Market? - 24th Feb 20
Sustained Silver Rally Coming? - 24th Feb 20
Should Investors Worry about Repo Market and Buy Gold? - 24th Feb 20
Are FANG Technology Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 24th Feb 20
Gold Above $1,600 Amid FOMC Minutes and Coronavirus Impact - 24th Feb 20
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 - 23rd Feb 20 -
Ways to Find Startup Capital - 23rd Feb 20
Stock Market Deviation from Overall Outlook for 2020 - 22nd Feb 20
The Shanghai Composite and Coronavirus: A Revealing Perspective - 22nd Feb 20
Baltic Dry, Copper, Oil, Tech and China Continue Call for Stock Market Crash Soon - 22nd Feb 20
Gold Warning – This is Not a Buying Opportunity - 22nd Feb 20
Is The Technology Sector FANG Stocks Setting Up For A Market Crash? - 22nd Feb 20
Coronavirus China Infection Statistics Analysis, Probability Forecasts 1/2 Million Infected - 21st Feb 20
Is Crude Oil Firmly on the Upswing Now? - 20th Feb 20
What Can Stop the Stocks Bull – Or At Least, Make It Pause? - 20th Feb 20
Trump and Economic News That Drive Gold, Not Just Coronavirus - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus COVID19 UK Infection Prevention, Boosting Immune Systems, Birmingham, Sheffield - 20th Feb 20
Silver’s Valuable Insights Into the Upcoming PMs Rally - 20th Feb 20
Coronavirus Coming Storm Act Now to Protect Yourselves and Family to Survive COVID-19 Pandemic - 19th Feb 20
Future Silver Prices Will Shock People, and They’ll Kick Themselves for Not Buying Under $20… - 19th Feb 20
What Alexis Kennedy Learned from Launching Cultist Simulator - 19th Feb 20
Stock Market Potential Short-term top - 18th Feb 20
Coronavirus Fourth Turning - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 18th Feb 20
The Stocks Hit Worst From the Coronavirus - 18th Feb 20
Tips on Pest Control: How to Prevent Pests and Rodents - 18th Feb 20
Buying a Custom Built Gaming PC From Overclockers.co.uk - 1. Delivery and Unboxing - 17th Feb 20
BAIDU (BIDU) Illustrates Why You Should NOT Invest in Chinese Stocks - 17th Feb 20
Financial Markets News Report: February 17, 2020 - February 21, 2020 - 17th Feb 20
NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU King For AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 17th Feb 20
Stock Market Bubble - No One Gets Out Of Here Alive! - 17th Feb 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020 - 16th Feb 20
SAMSUNG AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 16th Feb 20
Ignore the Polls, the Markets Have Already Told You Who Wins in 2020 - 16th Feb 20
UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic WARNING! Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham Outbreaks Probable - 16th Feb 20
iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB AI Mega-trend Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 15th Feb 20
Gold Stocks Still Stalled - 15th Feb 20
Is The Technology Stocks Sector Setting Up For A Crash? - 15th Feb 20
UK Calm Before Corona Virus Storm - Infections Forecast into End March 2020 - 15th Feb 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Coronavirus-bear-market-2020-analysis

UK BrExit Inflation Forecasts Spike CPI to 3%, RPI 4%

Economics / Inflation Jul 03, 2016 - 07:19 AM GMT

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Economics

Whilst official UK CPI Inflation continues to hug near 0% at a rate of just 0.3% for May 2016, meanwhile RPI which is the closest official measure to real inflation has continued to nudge higher to 1.4%, which are set against the demand adjusted Real UK inflation rate of 1.8%. So deflation? Not really, real UK price Inflation is actually well above 1% and was already trending towards 2% before BrExit.


So what are the future prospects for UK inflation following BrExit?

We'll it's not really that complicated to figure out, for we currently have twin factors that look set to drive UK inflation sharply higher over the next 12 months:

Firstly ,there has been the sharp depreciation in sterling of about 12% which instantly increases the price of imports and therefore should be having an immediate effect on inflation. However, unless the slide in sterling continues then this inflation should prove temporary and start to come out of the inflation indices a year from now.

Secondly there are the longer terms consequences of increased deficit spending stimulus for the UK economy as George Osborne abandons his economic policy of working towards a a budget surplus by 2020 but instead looks set to go on an economy boosting deficit spending spree.

Therefore both of these factors look set to drive UK CPI inflation significantly higher to above CPI 2% and very probably to spike above 3% early 2017, and RPI probably spiking above 4%. However, beyond that unless the surge in inflation triggers significant wage inflation then CPI inflation should then soon start retreat to back below 2% and the trend towards that of the inflation rate of the US at that time a year from now.

So the bottom line is that despite brexit inducing economic weakness, expect UK CPI Inflation to spike towards 3% and RPI to above 4% by early 2017, probably peaking for January 2017 data before trending lower into mid 2017.

Now before you all start panicking you need to realise that in effect nothing has really changed where inflation is concerned for we remain firmly immersed in an exponential inflation mega-trend of which the rise to 4% RPI would just mark the continuation of, where even the great deflation of the great recession of 2008 to 2009 is a mere blip on a long-term inflation trend.

For those who think that the sharp rise in inflation could trigger a rise in interests, then I would like to remind you all that inflation of above 5% of just a few years ago failed to prompt a Bank of England to raise rates due to the bank being terrified that its banking sector brethren would go bust again like 2008. So no rate hikes despite the rise in inflation which means savers are about to get screwed as savings rates FALL whilst inflation RISES.

For what happened on BrExit night see my selection of highlights from 8 hours of BBC coverage of EU Referendum night.

https://youtu.be/l1OrRd6MpjQ

And also see how all hell broke lose once the polls closed Friday as the markets, bookmakers and pollsters ALL got the EU Referendum very badly wrong, as YouGov's 10pm poll convinced all, even Nigel Farage that REMAIN had won triggering a further sharp rally in the FTSE futures and sterling that was sustained until the actual results started to be announced shortly after midnight. Which I covered in this comprehensive video of exactly what happened in the markets during a very volatile trading session.

https://youtu.be/rqK4QwgwjTU

Ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for in-depth analysis of the many future consequences of BrExit.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2016 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Housing Markets Forecast 2014-2018The Stocks Stealth Bull Market 2013 and Beyond EbookThe Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 EbookThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend EbookThe Inflation Mega-trend Ebook

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Nadeem Walayat Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules