Stock Market Bounce May be Over
Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2016 Jun 15, 2016 - 06:34 PM GMT
SPX may have met its match with the Broadening trendline at a 35% retracement. The peak came at 10:13 am, just 7 minutes over the 30.1 hours required to complete the Cycle.
VIX appears to have completed its retracement, or nearly so. It may be possible that it will resume its ascent. It has already nearly accomplished its Broadening Bottom target. The retracement appears to be a Pennant formation, giving VIX a new target of 31.00, near the January-February highs.
TNX appears to have complete its retracement and is on its way lower. The first target is the February 12 low. However, if this is Wave 3 of (5), the ultimate target may be as low as 12.58. This appears to be lower than the Head & Shoulders formation target. Let’s see which it is.
USD may challenge its 50-day Moving Average today at 94.45 today, especially after the announcement this afternoon. Today may be the start of something interesting in the currency market. A decline beneath that level confirms the decline will continue.
CNBC reports that the overwhelming mood is bullish on the dollar. It comments, “With a possible Brexit on the horizon, the dollar has strengthened as the referendum creeps closer. One trader sees the greenback going even higher, making an ETF tracking the U.S. currency worth an options play.
Looking at a daily chart of the U.S. dollar ETF UUP, Todd Gordon of TradingAnalysis.com starts off by pointing out that options on the UUP have grown more expensive, giving traders an attractive opportunity to sell them.
"We would like to sell this expensive implied volatility," Gordon said Tuesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation."
When it comes to direction, he projects the UUP will rise further.”
Regards,
Tony
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