The SPX Premarket appears heavy, but not down enough to make a difference. So we are in a sideways consolidation until a breakout or breakdown occurs. So far, the market has reacted to its Pi date on Tuesday. We may not get follow-through until tomorrow, when the monthly Jobs Report comes out.

ZeroHedge reports, “There are just two drivers setting the pace for today's risk mood: the OPEC meeting in Vienna which started a few hours ago, and the ECB's announcement as well as Mario Draghi's press statement due out just one hour from now. Both are expected tonot reveal any major surprises, with OPEC almost certainly unable to implement a production freeze while the ECB is expected to remain on hold and provide some more details on its corporate bond buying program, although there is some modest risk of upside surprise in either case. So while we await the outcome of both key events, European stocks rose, U.S. index futures declined, oil held near $49 a barrel, and the yen gained notably for the third day in a row. “

So far, VIX appears to have made an impulse higher and only a moderate retracement. This is a positive sign that may confirm the turn in stocks.

I am still counting this decline as a Wave 5, due to the Broadening formation. It is not unusual for the fifth and final point to fail going the distance. Should this remain the case, it would be very bullish for VIX, with a potential target near 25.00.

TNX has turned back down this morning, but we may not have seen the end of the consolidation in an [a]-[b]-[c] fashion. Should TNX bounce at the 50-day Moving Average, we may see it revisit yesterday’s high at 18.49.

All-in-all, today may be another quiet day until the direction of the market can be resolved.

Regards,

Tony

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