UK Immigration Crisis - Official Statistics Underreport Real EU Migration by 50%!
Politics / Immigration May 13, 2016 - 08:56 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The mainstream press is belatedly waking up to the fact that the UK governments official migration statistics compiled by the ONS under report real permanent immigration from the EU by at least 50% per year! For instance ONS EU immigration stats since 2011 was a net 1 million european union migrants permanently settled in the UK. However during this same time period 2.2 million National Insurance numbers were issued to european migrants. I have been flagging this huge persistent disparity in numbers for several years now that illustrates that the official immigration statistics just cannot be trusted!
The most ONS release further illustrates this huge continuing disparity as whilst the ONS states 257,000 EU migrants settled in the UK in the year to September 2015. However, during the same time period, 630,000 EU nationals applied for National Insurance numbers, necessary to claim in work and other benefits which is nearly 2.5X the headline ONS statistics!
So Why the Discrepancy?
It all boils down to the Mr bean-esk methodology for measuring immigration 'The Passenger Survey'. Which basically samples passengers entering the UK at its main airports and asks them if they are coming to the UK to visit or to stay and that is how the ONS arrives at its magic fantasy number for the number of migrants permanently entering the UK as those who say they are entering the UK for less than 12 months are NOT COUNTED. So it is becoming apparent that most visitors from the EU tend to state that they are only visiting i.e. for less than 12 months, but instead end up settling permanently given the huge disparity in wages and benefits between Britain and the whole of eastern europe, and thus the official statistics under report real permanent immigration into Britain from the EU by at least 50%!
Even Channel 4 news has belatedly jumped onto the erroneous migration statistics bandwagon with Thursdays programme showing permanently settled Polish migrants stating that if they had been asked at the airport whether they were coming to the UK to settle or just visit then they would have said NO they are not coming to the UK to permanently settle, despite having done so (you may be able to see the story on their youtube channel)
John Redwood commented: “The fact is over a five year period 1.2million additional people came here, got a job and got an NI number and obviously lived here for a considerable period of time even if some of them have now departed.
“And they needed to attend doctors surgeries, to have school places for their children and so forth.
“If we look at the figures for GP registrations we see that in the last two years alone an additional 1.1million people have registered for GP services implying that the NI numbers are closer to the truth and implying we need to look at the NI numbers as well as the formal migration numbers when planning public provision.”
Whilst Iain Duncan Smith commented to the BBC - "They come in, they do hot bedding in bed and breakfasts and things like that, they then take jobs at much lower rates,"
"This has forced the salaries of people in low-skilled and semi-skilled jobs down so they have suffered directly as a result of uncontrolled borders with short-term migration.
"I'm astonished that a government, my government, can sit here and say we had a pledge to bring down migration to tens of thousands but it's all right then because it doesn't matter how many people come in as long as they don't stay more than 52 weeks."
The bottom line is that ONS's migration statistics are not fit for purpose as I have been warning of for some years now.
So instead of the most recent ONS statistics implying that net migration is running at 330,000 per annum, the truth is closer near twice that number! Where allowing lower outside of EU migration then real immigration is running at approx 500,000 per annum That means that the UK population is likely to hit 70 million before the end of this decade! With dire consequences for all aspects of life in Britain from employment, to schooling to social services such as health and not forgetting the housing crisis.
Immigration Crisis Fast Becoming a Catastrophe
Britain, Europe are not just dealing with the likes of the Syrian civil war that has produced over 4 million refugees, most of whom are determined to find their way to the likes of Germany and Britain, but also the fact Africa continues to undergo a population explosion, where the continents population looks set to DOUBLE once more over the next 30 years from 1.1 billion to 2.2 billion that will result in a migration exodus that will be exponentially greater than that which is taking place today, which implies an trend for ever increasing number of economic migrants from Africa alone, let alone the continuing increasing flows from a more preposterous Asia (China) and elsewhere who can afford to pay people smugglers for transportation to a new life in the UK as I have covered in depth in the following video analysis -
Therefore, whilst today the mainstream broadcast press crisis coverage of immigration is focused on the camps of tens of thousands of migrants on Europe's southern borders and even some 5,000 near the port of Calais. However Britain should prepare itself for what the trend implies looks inevitable that within the next few years already buckling and highly stressed state services will break under the weight of numbers in response to which the government will be forced to introduce unprecedented measures such as cordoning off pockets of Southern England into self contained migrant camps of first in the tens of thousands and ultimately numbering in the hundreds of thousands in an attempt to contain the consequences of the immigration catastrophe that is the implied as a consequence of 10 million immigrants entering the UK (net 5 million) over the next 10 years that will be in addition to natural population growth of at approx 4 million.
In fact 10 years from now the UK will likely have whole villages and even towns cordoned off as permanent migrant camps in an attempt to contain the catastrophe.
UK Population Growth Forecast
My long standing forecast is for the UK population to grow from 62.2 million as of Mid 2010 to at least 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated below:
UK Population Growth and Immigration Trend Forecast 2010 to 2030)
The assumptions being factored into the UK population growth forecast are for a natural UK population growth rate of births exceeding deaths of 0.33% per year (current 200k), coupled with net average current immigration trend of 240k per year, supplemented with climate change refugees averaging 50k per year from 2015 onwards extrapolates into the following trend forecast over the next 10 years that targets a rise from 62.2 million as of mid 2010 to 67 million by mid 2020, and should the same trend be maintained beyond 2020 then the UK population could rise to above 72 million by mid 2030. However in all probability the country will not experience the post 2020 trend due to several converging factors including political pressures, capacity constraints and the UK's relegation in the economic prosperity leagues. Which implies a tapering off of net immigration in favour of natural growth which implies a lower total of nearer 70.5 million by 2030 as illustrated by the below graph.
The updated UK population graph shows an actual trend trajectory as per the most recent ONS population data into Mid 2014 of 64.6 million, which suggests that the UK population could increase by an additional 4 million by 2030 as a consequence of what amounts to continuing out of control immigration and high birth rate that in total would translate into a population increase equivalent to 15 cities the size of Birmingham.
This has huge implications for Britain in terms of housing, services, wages, education, welfare and social cohesion that will make the crisis of the past decade look like a picnic. For in depth analysis see 15 Apr 2015 - UK House Prices, Immigration, Population Growth and Election Forecast 2015, and the following video -
The bottom line is that it is pointless for the likes of George Osborne announcement to build 400,000 affordable homes over the next 5 years, because it does not matter how many new homes built, 400k, 500k, even 1 million will make no difference to Britain's housing crisis for the simple fact that Britain has an immigration crisis as continuing out of control immigration ensures new demand will always far outstrip new supply. So the real solution for getting to grips with Britain's housing crisis IS TO CONTROL IMMIGRATION which is ONLY possible by EXITING the European Union for a New Dawn, New Life for Britain.
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By Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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